Silver Price Plunged Then Soared 13.8% in a Deep V-Shaped Reversal During Chinese New Year, Post-Holiday Industrial Consumption Cautious vs. Investment Demand Hot [SMM Analysis]

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors such as US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with silver prices showing a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the close on February 23, London spot silver settled at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% from the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13.

Due to the drag from pre-holiday US stock declines and weakening liquidity, overseas precious metals continued their decline at the beginning of last week, with silver and platinum once falling below the 60-day moving average and gold losing the 20-day moving average. Subsequently, as the US announced that the Q4 GDP growth rate fell short of expectations, precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. After the US Supreme Court ruled to revoke most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on globally imported goods to the US within the next 150 days, market concerns over trade conflicts and economic downturn were reignited. Coupled with the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations potentially worsening the Middle East situation, which stimulated safe-haven demand, precious metals surged significantly during the session and recovered previous losses, with silver leading the gains.

During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, refined silver supply from copper, lead, and zinc smelters mainly maintained stable production, while large-scale downstream enterprises such as silver nitrate and alloy manufacturers generally suspended operations for the holiday. Except for a few small and medium-sized silver-based material, jewelry, and some industrial users processing urgent orders normally, downstream consumption temporarily stalled due to holiday factors and the high silver price and premium market conditions.
Although multiple smelters mentioned accumulated in-factory inventory after the holiday, compared to previous years, the destocking speed for the accumulated inventory after the 2026 holiday was faster. Some manufacturers transferred in-factory inventory to social warehouses on the first day after the holiday and prepared for delivery or sold directly at market premiums. Smelter in-factory inventory levels are expected to gradually decrease to safe levels.

Looking ahead this week, although import tariffs on investment-grade gold and silver are exempted, the policy's impact on US dollar assets and its boost to precious metal allocation demand will both benefit gold and silver prices. The market will further price in the impact of Trump's tariffs. In the spot market, physical investment demand for precious metals may again see stockpiling and rush to buy amid continuous price rises. Some downstream enterprises expect to purchase physical goods from the exchange after the delivery of the SHFE February contract ends, thus cautiously watching the high premium quotes for circulating supplies after the holiday.

Additionally, it is worth noting that the significant volatility in silver prices in early 2026 and the hedging liquidity pressure brought by the exchange's raised margins have prompted intermediate silver-containing material processing manufacturers to weigh between maintaining customer relationships with orders at breakeven or even small losses and halting production to stop losses. Although downstream enterprises resumed normal operations after the holiday, most industrial enterprises basically did not take new orders during the holiday. Post-holiday orders for silver nitrate and electronic/electrical intermediate processing products are expected to be average. Spot transactions are mainly driven by investment demand, with jewelry and investment silver bar processing recovering quickly. Industrial consumption end-users currently have low acceptance of the significantly increased prices and post-holiday spot premiums, thus placing orders relatively cautiously. After the holiday, the precious metals market is partially hot but overall sluggish. Besides macro disturbances and geopolitical changes, subsequent attention should still be paid to premium changes after the delivery of the SHFE front-month contract and whether low inventory in overseas COMEX will again cause price anomalies.