On February 24, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 375,000 yuan/mt, quickly rose to fluctuate within the 380,000-390,000 yuan range, and closed the morning session at 386,990 yuan/mt, up 1.63%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract traded in the doldrums before the Chinese New Year due to decreased activity on the SHFE. During the first full trading week after the holiday, trading volume gradually recovered, and the price center slowly moved upward. Boosted by SHFE tin today, it temporarily closed at $49,025/mt, up 3.49%.
Before the holiday, the Indonesian Minister of Mines mentioned that the department is studying a ban on exports of several raw materials, including tin, next year. The Indonesian market already restricts exports of tin ore resources, only allowing exports of tin ingots. Revisiting this issue has drawn market attention to Indonesia's deep-processing sector. However, given that policies restricting ore exports have precedents, the marginal boost to the market is relatively limited.
In the spot market, spot circulation was limited after the holiday, and suppliers maintained relatively high premiums in their offers. However, according to an SMM survey, most downstream solder enterprises have not fully resumed work yet; some enterprises are still on holiday or in the equipment debugging and employee return stages, so actual market transactions were quite limited. Logistics-wise, inter-provincial transport is gradually recovering, but overall capacity has not yet returned to normal levels.
Overall, downstream operations have not fully resumed, and demand remains in the early stages of post-holiday recovery. The market mainly showed a relatively strong consolidation pattern as funds returned after the holiday. As logistics and downstream enterprises gradually resume work this week, the actual release of demand needs close monitoring. Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Subsequent attention should be paid to the pace of downstream work resumptions and the recovery of spot transactions.
