JPMorgan Forecasts ~130,000t Copper Supply Deficit in 2026

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the tight supply-side pattern is expected to continue supporting spot premiums. According to SMM, from October to November, multiple domestic copper smelters will successively enter planned maintenance periods. Against the backdrop of persistently tight supply of copper concentrates and blister copper and copper anode, production and shipment pace at some smelters may be affected to a certain extent, limiting growth in available market supply. Meanwhile, port congestion in Shanghai has not yet fully eased, and the arrival pace of imported copper still carries some uncertainty, making it difficult for imported supply to see a significant near-term increase. On the demand side, with copper prices staying high, downstream purchases remain primarily need-based, with limited acceptance of high premiums. Overall, if arrivals do not increase significantly next week, spot premiums in the Shanghai market are expected to continue to consolidate at highs.