Tariff Uncertainty Disturbs the Market, LME Zinc Fluctuates and Pulls Back [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes]

Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes for February 23

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,383/mt. After opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the daily average line, hitting a high of $3,392/mt during the session. Subsequently, LME zinc pulled back during the night session. After failing to surge again, it touched a low of $3,341.5/mt towards the end of the session, finally closing down at $3,345.5/mt, down $32.5/mt, a decrease of 0.96%. Trading volume increased to 5,900 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,496 lots to 230,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc was closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday.

Macro: Trump signaled an easing of US-Iran tensions, preferring agreement over war; US media: Trump administration considers new national security tariffs on six major industries; US media: US military leaders warn of extremely high risks in using force against Iran, potentially leading to prolonged conflict; European Parliament suspends approval of EU-US trade agreement; Trump: Any country trying to "play tricks" will face higher tariffs; Ministry of Foreign Affairs: German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26; SDIC Silver LOF's valuation adjustment is expected to have a certain negative impact on the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026.

Spot Market:

Shanghai: On the last trading day before the holiday, the refined zinc purchase sentiment in Shanghai was 1.56, and the shipment sentiment was 1.73. The Shanghai market was basically on holiday on the last trading day before the holiday, with very few traders shipping goods. Spot offers saw almost no transactions, and the market performance was sluggish.

Guangdong: On the last trading day before the holiday, the refined zinc purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 1.2, and the sales sentiment was 1.7. On the last trading day before the holiday, there were almost no traders shipping goods in the market. The trading atmosphere was sluggish, with a strong holiday atmosphere.

Tianjin: On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year, trading in the Tianjin market was sluggish.

Ningbo: On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year, there were no market quotes. Most downstream players were on holiday, and no purchase inquiries were seen. The market had a strong holiday atmosphere.

Social Inventory: On February 20, LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 mt to 101,550 mt, a drop of 0.02%. According to SMM communication, domestic inventory increased as of February 12.

Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with support provided by the 5-day moving average below. Although LME zinc ingot inventory remained low during the holiday, macro disturbances persisted. Last Friday, the US Supreme Court overturned Trump's emergency tariff order, after which Trump announced he would implement new comprehensive tariff policies. Uncertainty regarding the tariff plan continues, and LME zinc pulled back after fluctuating at highs. Overnight, SHFE zinc was closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday.

Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.