[SMM Analysis] Review of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

Published: Feb 23, 2026 22:56

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[SMM Analysis: Review and Post-Chinese New Year Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday] Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, the tightening of Indonesian quotas is expected to lead to high nickel prices with wide swings following the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive up high-grade NPI prices.

According to SMM, during the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic high-grade NPI market exhibited weakness on both the supply and demand sides, with overall trading being sluggish.

Supply side, domestic smelters generally implemented production cuts during the holiday, leading to a significant decrease in trading activity and a noticeable contraction in high-grade NPI supply. Meanwhile, pre-holiday, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at approximately 260 million mt, significantly fueling market sentiment regarding tight supply. Demand side, downstream stainless steel enterprises had completed stockpiling before the holiday, and coupled with holiday shutdowns, procurement demand for high-grade NPI saw a significant pullback, resulting in overall sluggish market activity.

Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's quota tightening policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of high-level wide swings after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices. Cost side, driven by the quota tightening news and the impact of the tailings landslide accident at Indonesia's IMIP park, nickel ore prices have risen, and high-grade NPI costs are expected to continue increasing, also providing support for high-grade NPI prices. Overall, supported by both high refined nickel prices and rising nickel ore costs, high-grade NPI prices are expected to receive strong support, with the market trading center anticipated to steadily move higher.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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