[SMM Analysis] Review of the Ferrochrome Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

During the Chinese New Year holiday, the chrome market maintained stable operation. In Inner Mongolia, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome held at 8,500–8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), while in Sichuan, offers stood at 8,500–8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The main factors supporting firm prices were the arrival of previously high-priced chrome ore and continued ore price increases due to pre-holiday stockpiling purchases, which kept production costs high for ferrochrome producers and supported high ferrochrome offers. However, downstream stainless steel mills mostly implemented production cuts and adopted a wait-and-see approach toward ferrochrome purchases. Holiday sentiment prevailed, and trading activity largely paused. Meanwhile, ferrochrome producers in northern China largely maintained normal production, effectively offsetting lower supply from south China and imports, resulting in a slight overall surplus.

Looking ahead, the chrome market is expected to remain stable, pending the announcement of March tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome by major stainless steel mills. Current market expectations are mostly bullish. From a supply-demand perspective, post-holiday production resumptions at downstream steel mills, coupled with stimulus from the peak consumption season of "Golden March, Silver April," are expected to support a recovery in ferrochrome procurement demand. However, given that most ferrochrome producers maintained normal operations during the holiday and new capacity continues to be released, the overall market is projected to remain in a slight surplus to tight balance. On the cost side, chrome ore prices remain high, keeping ferrochrome production costs elevated. Most producers maintain a firm and bullish price stance, and post-holiday ferrochrome offers are expected to hold steady.