Review of the Tin Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 23, 2026 21:09 (GMT+8)

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I. Tin Price Review During Chinese New Year

During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (15–23 February), SHFE tin was closed while LME tin fluctuated rangebound at highs.

Pre-holiday retreat after rapid rise: in the week before the holiday, tin prices rose sharply on three drivers—overseas macro easing expectations, tight domestic supply, and just-in-time restocking. On the last trading day (13 February), however, stronger-than-expected US CPI data reinforced “higher-for-longer” rate fears, the US dollar rebounded, downstream plants shut for the holiday, and risk-off capital left; the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 365,400 yuan/mt, plunging 7.05% on the day.

Holiday rangebound moves: with SHFE closed, LME lacked a clear one-way catalyst. Demand side was in traditional off-season, leaving a “tight supply, weak demand” standoff. LME tin is expected to hover around key levels through the break.

II. Key Macro Events & Industry Updates

RKAB rule change: Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reverted the RKAB (Work Plan & Budget) approval cycle from three years back to one, effective 2026. The shift forced some miners to re-submit in Q1, slowing exports temporarily.
Quota expectations vs. reality: the Indonesian Tin Exporters Association (AETI) said mid-January that the 2026 mine production quota is expected at about 60 kt; approvals are still under review.
Illegal mine crackdown: Jakarta previously ordered 1,000 illegal tin mines on Sumatra closed.

Geopolitics: supply-chain worries after earlier quakes in Myanmar linger, while the Bisie mine in the DRC remains disrupted by regional conflict. Macro-wise, volatile US inflation data and Trump-administration trade policy keep uncertainty elevated.

III. Post-holiday Outlook

Supply side: February’s Chinese New Year shutdowns and scheduled maintenance at most domestic smelters will cut tin ingot output. Myanmar ore imports may slowly recover, yet tighter Indonesian quota policy acts as a hard constraint.

Demand side: as traders and downstream solder, electronics and PV plants resume work, just-in-time procurement should gradually recover. Still, tin’s absolute price remains historically high, likely curbing downstream stockpiling willingness and intensity; the demand rebound pace may be modest.

After the holiday, SHFE tin is expected to stay in ahigh-level wide-swingpattern. Below, ore tightness and low inventory give solid support; above, high prices will visibly restrain physical uptake. Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract’s core trading range is projected at360,000–400,000 yuan/mt. Watch actual downstream restart speed, restocking strength, and the final shape of Indonesia’s export policy.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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