I. Pre-Holiday Close: Decline Slows, Strong Support Forms at 17,000 Yuan/mt Mark

During the last working week before the Chinese New Year, the EMM market's decline significantly narrowed after a cumulative drop of 600 yuan/mt the previous week, gradually entering a state of weak stabilization. Mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices in the Manganese Triangle Region and Guangxi were quoted at 17,200-17,400 yuan/mt, while distributor prices at Tianjin Port and Huangpu Port were at 17,400-17,600 yuan/mt, with the lower end approaching the key 17,000 yuan/mt level.

Regarding market sentiment, the earlier panic selling has largely subsided, and the willingness to hold prices firm on the spot side has strengthened. In terms of transaction structure, pre-holiday inquiries and spot transactions continued to shrink, with many traders leaving early for the holiday. Only steel mills completed their final round of pre-holiday restocking purchases, becoming the core force supporting the market and preventing further declines. Overall, the pre-holiday market formed a pattern of "prices hitting bottom, shrinking transactions, and stabilizing sentiment."

II. Holiday Overview: Sluggish Trading, Sideways Prices, Significant Production Decline

During the Chinese New Year break, the EMM market entered a "freeze period," characterized by "stable prices, stagnant transactions, and contracting supply."

Price Performance: Spot market quotations largely continued pre-holiday levels, with the mainstream range holding at around 17,300 yuan/mt, showing no significant fluctuations. As most enterprises halted operations for the holiday and traders were away, the market lacked actual transaction support, and prices remained "nominally stable," with both buyers and sellers in a wait-and-see mode.

Production Changes: Affected by the Chinese New Year break, equipment maintenance, and environmental protection-related controls in some regions, EMM production in February saw a noticeable decline. Most small and medium-sized smelters ceased production successively from early February. Although leading enterprises maintained some operational production lines, the overall operating rate decreased significantly compared to January. Coupled with fewer calendar days in February, national EMM production in February is expected to show a substantial decrease MoM. The supply-side contraction lays the foundation for post-holiday price stabilization.

III. Post-Holiday Outlook: Imminent Resumption in March, Restocking Demand to Ignite Market Activity

As the Chinese New Year break concludes, the industry is counting down to the resumption of work and production. The EMM market in March is expected to see a recovery with "increases in both volume and price," driven primarily by supply-demand dynamics:

Demand side: Downstream steel mills, stainless steel enterprises, and new energy cathode material enterprises will collectively resume operations in March. After pre-holiday stockpiling is depleted, restocking demand is expected to be released intensively. On one hand, the steel industry's off-season is gradually ending, and the rebound in infrastructure project operating rates will drive a recovery in traditional rigid demand. On the other hand, sustained growth in demand for battery-grade Mn3O4 from the new energy sector will transmit upstream to EMM, creating dual demand support.

Supply side: The significant contraction in February production will leave spot inventory at relatively low levels after the holiday. Although some enterprises plan to resume operations in March, capacity release requires a certain period. In the short term, the market will exhibit a pattern of "demand recovering faster than supply restoration," providing strong support for prices.

Price outlook: In the short term, after the March resumption of operations, with inquiries and transactions increasing rapidly, EMM prices are expected to consolidate and rebound around the 17,000 yuan/mt level. The extent of the rebound will depend on downstream restocking intensity and leading enterprises' willingness to hold prices firm. In the medium and long term, the dual effects of sustained growth in new energy demand and industry capacity regulation will drive the market to gradually emerge from the adjustment cycle and return to a rational operating range.

Overall, the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday served as a "consolidation at lows" period for the EMM market. Price stability and production contraction laid the foundation for post-holiday recovery. March, as a critical period for industry resumption and demand release, will be the core window determining the Q1 market trend, with the market center expected to gradually shift upward.