South America Becomes Center of Critical Minerals Supply Chain, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, February 12, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,357/mt overnight, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,480/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices gradually moved down to a low of $13,115/mt, before the center of copper prices rose somewhat and finally closed at $13,239/mt, up 1.06%, with trading volume reaching 26,500 lots and open interest reaching 326,000 lots, an increase of 893 lots from the previous trading day, overall showing bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 103,620 yuan/mt overnight, rose to 103,730 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated with wide swings to a low of 101,840 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward and finally closing at 102,190 yuan/mt, up 0.26%, with trading volume reaching 69,800 lots and open interest reaching 152,000 lots, a decrease of 6,478 lots from the previous trading day, overall showing bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On Thursday, February 12, a study released by Verisk Maplecroft on Thursday suggested that South America could become the cornerstone of the West's strategy to realign critical mineral supply chains. This followed the US announcement of strategic raw material reserves and efforts to establish a critical minerals trade group. The study assessed 10 emerging markets with major reserves of cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements. The study showed that Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru were at the center of opportunities to rebalance supply chains. South America has substantial reserves of critical minerals, but also faces resource nationalism and political risks.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of February 11, the SHFE copper 2602 contract fluctuated rangebound and then rose slightly after opening at 101,160 yuan/mt. After opening, the price rose slightly then quickly tested lower multiple times, fluctuating repeatedly between 101,170 yuan/mt and 101,370 yuan/mt, before the price gradually rebounded from the low, reaching a high of 101,550 yuan/mt, then pulled back to a low of 101,310 yuan/mt before quickly rising again, closing up at 101,630 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby months was between 500 yuan/mt and 400 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper's current month contract was between a loss of 910 yuan/mt and 780 yuan/mt. Spot premiums/discounts were still expected to face downward pressure. Approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, market participation continued to decline, with most suppliers and downstream enterprises gradually entering holiday mode; overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish during the day. Supply side, spot cargoes locked in during the previous period when the import window was open continued to arrive at ports, and spot supply available in the market steadily increased. Demand side, however, weakened further due to the approaching holiday; downstream enterprises had generally completed pre-holiday stockpiling, purchase willingness was low at this stage, and the market showed a clear supply-demand weakness pattern. Overall, the market maintained sluggish trading, and spot discounts were expected to continue widening today.
(2) Guangdong: On February 11, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 120-0 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200-160 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 180 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,175 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,105 yuan/mt, down 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
(3) Imported copper: On February 11, warrant prices were $26-42/mt, QP February, with the average price down $4/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $28-46/mt, QP March, with the average price down $7/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $13-21/mt, QP March, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late February.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on February 11, the futures closing price was 101,630 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -50 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,500-89,700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,118 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,570 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as enterprises were fully on holiday, almost no secondary copper rod enterprises offered quotations in the market.
Prices: On the macro front, the US added 130,000 non-farm payrolls in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, with the data exceeding expectations, leading to cooling expectations for interest rate cuts. US Fed officials adopted a hawkish stance, favoring maintaining restrictive interest rates, while Trump continued to pressure the Fed. Geopolitically, Zelensky plans to visit the US next week. Armed groups in Papua, Indonesia, attacked a Freeport company convoy, resulting in one death and two injuries, increasing security risks in the mining area. On the fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive at ports, and spot supply in the market increased steadily. Demand side, the holiday effect emerged, downstream stockpiling basically ended, and purchasing sentiment became increasingly mediocre. Overall, copper prices are expected to have limited upside today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]