[SS Daily Review] Indonesian Nickel Ore News Boosts SS Back to 14,000 yuan/mt, Stainless Steel Spot Market Enters Holiday with Stable Prices

SMM February 11 news, SS futures showed a strong upward trend. Last night, Indonesia's nickel ore approval volume for 2026 was officially announced, driving SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures higher; during the day, stainless steel futures rose again above 14,000 yuan/mt, finally closing at 14,145 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite the strong performance of SS futures, most spot trading was suspended, as traders and downstream enterprises were largely on holiday, resulting in minimal actual transactions and stable prices.

The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:30 am, SS2604 was quoted at 14,010 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 160-360 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for 201/2B cold-rolled coil in Wuxi was 8,500 yuan/mt; the average price for 304/2B cold-rolled mill-edge coil was 14,100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,050 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for 316L/2B cold-rolled coil in Wuxi was 26,600 yuan/mt, and 26,600 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for 316L/NO.1 hot-rolled coil in Wuxi was 25,750 yuan/mt; the price for 430/2B cold-rolled coil was 7,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.

This week, repeated fluctuations in macro sentiment, combined with a significant pullback in precious metal prices, dragged down nonferrous metals futures overall, with stainless steel futures also showing wild swings. Prices hit the limit down early in the week, and although a corrective rebound gradually unfolded later, the overall weak trend did not fundamentally reverse. The spot market declined in tandem with the fluctuations in the futures market, and market sentiment wavered with the futures, overall becoming cautious and conservative. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, some traders had already begun leaving for the holiday this week, leading to a continued decline in market trading activity. Only during brief periods of corrective rebound in the futures market did some essential restocking occur downstream; overall transactions remained sluggish. Inventory side, social inventories of stainless steel showed a slight buildup this week, but overall inventory levels remained historically low, keeping traders' inventory pressure relatively limited. Coupled with positive expectations for the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak consumption season, there was no panic selling, which to some extent alleviated downward pressure on spot prices. In February, stainless steel mills will gradually begin their annual maintenance plans, and planned production is expected to decrease significantly; however, downstream end-use industries are also entering the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a temporary halt in demand. The positive effect of supply reduction was offset by demand contraction, providing limited support to market prices. Cost side, prices for high-grade NPI and stainless steel scrap declined, leading to a corresponding decrease in stainless steel production costs. Currently, steel mills can still maintain marginal profits, providing some baseline support from the cost side. Overall, the stainless steel market this week was primarily driven by futures and macro sentiment, with relatively weak support from spot fundamentals; coupled with factors such as sluggish pre-holiday transactions and traders leaving the market for holidays, the market remained in the doldrums. However, favorable factors such as relatively low inventory, positive post-holiday expectations, and cost support effectively limited the downside room for prices. In the short term, pre-holiday capital sentiment and fluctuations in futures will continue to dominate market trends; going forward, close attention should be paid to macroeconomic developments and the pace of recovery in downstream demand after the holiday.