Macro Sentiment Drives Rapid Correction After Rally, SHFE Tin Enters Consolidation Phase [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes for February 9, 2026

Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets experienced a rapid pullback after a macro sentiment-driven surge, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract quickly hitting the downside limit early in the week, erasing nearly all gains from the second half of January within two days, before entering a consolidation phase, while LME tin also weakened in sync. The market overall reflected a weak supply-demand balance: Supply side, most smelters maintained stable production, but are expected to gradually enter Chinese New Year-related maintenance shutdowns in February; overseas, although Indonesia's RKAB policy remains not fully clear, market concerns over supply shortages have eased, and while expectations for production resumptions at Myanmar mines persist, actual supply remains low and stable. Demand side, demand continued to be significantly suppressed by high prices; although the sharp price drop stimulated some pent-up pre-holiday stockpiling and inventory management demand, market willingness to trade saw a rebound and SHFE inventory declined for consecutive weeks, but as the Chinese New Year approaches, most downstream enterprises have entered the holiday early, with overall production and procurement pace slowing down, limiting the extent of demand recovery. Structural contradictions between tight spot market supply and overall weak consumption persist. Macro perspective, the previous liquidity expectations that drove prices higher reversed, with the US Fed Chairman nomination event causing a shift in market expectations, coupled with profit-taking, collectively exacerbating the pullback pressure in commodity markets. Against a backdrop of weakening macro drivers, lack of strong fundamental support, and the approaching Chinese New Year, SHFE tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the price center likely to gradually shift lower. Investors should closely monitor changes in macro policies, the pace of post-holiday production resumptions at downstream enterprises, and the recovery in orders.