Spot supply is becoming increasingly tight, and with the Chinese New Year approaching, SHFE copper has shifted from a discount to a premium. [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

SMM February 5 News:

Today, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2602 contract were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average price at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode prices were 98,680-100,530 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a V-shaped pattern, opening at 99,540 yuan/mt. After opening, prices continued to decline, touching a low of 97,960 yuan/mt, then rebounded slightly to a high of 100,840 yuan/mt, followed by a slight pullback and fluctuating between 99,730 yuan/mt and 100,510 yuan/mt. The closing price was 99,900 yuan/mt. The contango spread between nearby contracts ranged from 390 yuan/mt to 190 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper's current month contract ranged from a loss of 460 yuan/mt to 260 yuan/mt.

Intraday trading sentiment for both sales and purchases increased slightly compared to yesterday. The sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.55, down 0.18 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment was 2.88, up 0.03 MoM. At the beginning of the morning session, spot copper resources in the Shanghai market were tight, suppliers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, with only some warrants circulating. Standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to parity. Among them, Yuguang and Dajiang HS offers at a discount of 50 yuan/mt were quickly traded, after which prices were adjusted to a discount of 30 yuan/mt. In the domestic market today, a small amount of previously price-locked imported copper from Peru was offered at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt and quickly traded. Entering the second session, suppliers further raised prices. High-quality copper, Jinchuan (plate), was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt, with the actual transaction center at a premium of 100 yuan/mt. Yuguang and Dajiang HS were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity. SX-EW copper from Myanmar was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, while non-registered copper traded successively at a discount of 260 yuan/mt to 180 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, today's lower copper prices effectively stimulated downstream restocking, coupled with concentrated release of Friday stockpiling demand. Against the backdrop of continuously tightening available spot supply, this pushed spot prices from a discount to a premium, and suppliers' sentiment to hold prices firm significantly strengthened. Additionally, some price-ratio locked cargoes from the previous period when the import window was open are expected to arrive gradually, which may increase supply in the short term. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises are gradually entering a holiday pace, with most top-tier enterprises having largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, so actual purchasing demand is expected to gradually weaken.