The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated rangebound during the night session, with downstream enterprises mostly following up with small-lot transactions. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on February 6, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) fluctuated rangebound during the night session and closed at 366,500 yuan/mt, down 3.36%.

Macro: (1) Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated that global auto sales reached 8.86 million units in December 2025, up 2% YoY. As the Chinese and US auto markets slowed down relatively, global auto sales growth slowed in December 2025. Sales for January-December 2025 totaled 96.47 million units, up 5% YoY. Global auto sales grew 5% in January-December 2025, with China (34.35 million units, up 9%), the US (16.72 million units, up 1%), India (5.58 million units, up 7%), Japan (4.56 million units, up 3%), and Germany (3.16 million units, up 1%). Currently, the Chinese market is the most dynamic, with rapid growth. The Russian market declined significantly, Mexico's growth slowed, while markets such as Argentina in South America performed well. China's share of the global auto market continues to rise, rebounding to a high of 40% in November and remaining at a good level of 37% in December. China's share of the global auto market was 34.2% in 2024 and reached 35.6% in 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points YoY. (2) Counterpoint stated that memory prices in Q1 2026 rose 80%-90% QoQ, hitting an unprecedented historical high. The main driver of this price increase is the sharp rise in general server DRAM prices. Additionally, relatively calm NAND flash prices in Q4 also saw a synchronized increase of 80%-90% in Q1. Combined with price increases for some HBM3e products, the entire market showed a comprehensive upward trend.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt production for maintenance in February, entering the Chinese New Year holiday. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, pre-holiday restocking has basically ended, and downstream enterprises will gradually begin to halt production for rest.

Spot market: Market trading recovered, mainly focused on orders and inventory management. However, market fluctuations were intense, guidance was temporarily unclear, and downstream enterprises mostly followed up with small orders.

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