Shanghai spot copper supply tightens, suppliers hold back sales and hold prices firm [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Feb 4, 2026 13:58

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] The Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue exhibiting a weak supply-demand pattern. The contango spread between nearby months widened slightly, further encouraging suppliers to convert some spot cargo into warrants, limiting further tightening of spot liquidity. Some smelters have opted for stockpiling for delivery, coupled with suppliers' evident reluctance to sell and firm price-holding sentiment, resulting in limited tradable spot cargo in the market, which will support the spot discount structure. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have generally slowed their procurement pace, with most having entered the final stage of pre-holiday stockpiling or production adjustment phases. Actual transaction activity is suppressed, and demand-side factors are unlikely to provide sustained boosts to prices. Amid intertwined factors such as high copper prices, tight supply, firm price-holding by suppliers, and pressure from the futures spread, spot discounts are expected to narrow slightly further tomorrow.

SMM February 4 News:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2602 contract ranged from a discount of 150 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt, with an average price at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper prices were 103,800-105,010 yuan/mt. In the morning, SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a slight fluctuation followed by a downward trend, opening at 104,950 yuan/mt and fluctuating between 104,500-105,150 yuan/mt, then falling to a low of 103,520 yuan/mt, closing at 103,830 yuan/mt. The contango spread for the next month was 430-300 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper in the current month was a loss of 640-510 yuan/mt.

Compared to yesterday, both buying and selling sentiment declined slightly today. In Shanghai, the sales sentiment for copper cathode was 2.66, down 0.14 MoM; the procurement sentiment was 2.75, down 0.03 MoM. At the beginning of the morning session, the supply of circulating resources in the Shanghai spot copper market was tight, and suppliers had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The available brands on the market were limited, including Guixi, Jinchuan isa Yongchang, Yuguang, Dajiang HS, and most were warrants. High-quality Guixi copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, while standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 170-130 yuan/mt, with most being warrants such as Jinguan, Zhongjin, and Tiefeng. In the second period, suppliers raised prices, and the circulation of spot goods became even more limited. Jinguan and Tongguan were quoted at a discount of 120-100 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper from Myanmar was quoted at a discount of 200-180 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper traded at a discount of 250-220 yuan/mt.

The Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue with a weak supply-demand balance. The slight widening of the contango spread further prompted suppliers to convert some of their inventory into warrants, restricting liquidity. Some smelters chose to stockpile for delivery, and the clear sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm led to limited tradable spot goods, supporting the discount structure. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have generally slowed down their procurement pace, with most entering the final stage of pre-holiday stockpiling or production adjustments, leading to suppressed actual transaction activity and making it difficult for demand to provide sustained support to prices. Under the intertwined factors of high copper prices, tight supply, supplier's firm pricing, and the pressure from the contango spread, it is expected that the spot discounts will continue to narrow slightly tomorrow.

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