[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Continue to Decline on February 3, Trump Is Expected to Launch $12 Billion Mineral Reserve "Gold Reserve Plan"

SMM Nickel February 3 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Trump is expected to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve "Gold Vault Plan." The project will integrate private capital (preliminarily estimated at approximately $1.67 billion) with a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank to help automakers, technology companies, and other manufacturers acquire and stockpile mineral resources.

(2) US manufacturing returns to expansion territory after one year. Data shows the ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6 last month, marking the first time it has exceeded 50 in 12 months and reaching the highest level since August 2022, after having remained in contraction territory for 10 consecutive months previously.

Spot Market:

On February 3, the SMM #1 refined nickel price range was 133,700-144,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 139,050 yuan/mt, down 1,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 9,000-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 9,250 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) pulled back after a slight early-session rise, closing the morning session at 133,550 yuan/mt, down 2.18%.

The recent sharp decline in nickel prices has strong systematic and sentimental characteristics, coupled with relatively weak fundamentals; in the short term, nickel prices may remain under pressure. However, with the lingering issue of reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, nickel prices are still expected to rebound in the later market.