Eldorado Acquires Furan Mine, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,940.5/mt overnight, hitting an early high of $13,107/mt before the price center moved downward. After hitting a bottom of $12,758/mt, it fluctuated rangebound and finally closed at $12,900/mt, down 1.3%. Trading volume reached 49,000 lots, down 2,065 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 327,000 lots, down 5,673 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly reflecting long position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 101,490 yuan/mt overnight, hitting an early high of 101,490 yuan/mt before the center moved downward. After probing a low of 99,500 yuan/mt, it fluctuated rangebound and finally closed at 100,820 yuan/mt, down 1.1%. Trading volume reached 180,000 lots, down 243,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 188,000 lots, down 7,130 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly reflecting short position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On February 2, Glencore's Horne smelter faced repeated severe criticism for pollution issues in the Rouyn-Noranda area. Glencore set the rectification deadline for the Horne smelter as January 31 to complete preparations aimed at reducing pollutant emissions. Glencore stated: "At this stage, certain critical matters remain unresolved. The current impasse must be broken immediately to ensure the continuous operation of the Horne smelter and the company's Montreal refinery, and to implement the investments needed to support the smelter's future development."
(2) On February 2, Canadian mining company Eldorado Gold announced it would acquire fellow Canadian copper developer Foran Mining in a deal valued at approximately C$3.8 billion (about $2.8 billion), aiming to expand its copper business layout and enhance its growth project portfolio. The transaction will integrate Eldorado's assets in Canada, Greece, and Turkey and is expected to boost its copper and gold capacity upon completion. Foran shareholders will receive a combination of Eldorado shares and cash. The transaction is expected to be completed in Q2 2026, and both boards have unanimously approved it.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on February 2, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a trend of declining and then stabilizing at low levels. After opening, it dropped slightly, probing a low of 99,500 yuan/mt, then rebounded slightly, fluctuating between 99,900-101,160 yuan/mt. The closing price was 99,960 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby months ranged from 320-160 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper spot was between a loss of 410-260 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the SHFE spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Copper prices retreated yesterday, and market orders increased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the current price level has enhanced its attractiveness to end-user procurement, which may provide some support to spot premiums/discounts. In terms of market structure, SHFE copper imports turned from loss to profit, prompting importers to actively lock in the SHFE/LME price ratio. Therefore, a significant amount of imported copper is expected to enter the domestic market before the holiday. Meanwhile, the Contango spread between nearby months narrowed slightly, encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term spot supply pressure. If copper prices fall further to lower levels, it may trigger more sustained restocking demand, at which point spot discounts could gradually stabilize.
(2) Guangdong: On February 2, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 380-150 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 265 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 460-440 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 450 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,290 yuan/mt, down 5,550 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,105 yuan/mt, down 5,585 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, end-user restocking demand was moderate. Suppliers actively lowered prices to sell, causing spot premiums/discounts to decline further, and overall trading activity was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On February 2, warrant prices were $30-48/mt, QP February, with the average price up $12/mt from the previous day. B/L prices were $36-54/mt, QP February, with the average price up $17/mt from the previous day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $8-20/mt, QP February, with the average price up $13/mt from the previous day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on February 2, the futures closing price was 99,960 yuan/mt, down 4,370 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average spot premium/discount was -130 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. Today, the price of copper scrap fell 2,800 yuan/mt WoW. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 88,600-88,800 yuan/mt, down 2,800 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,357 yuan/mt, down 1,274 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 920 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices once hit the limit-down, secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that due to uncontrollable and chaotic market conditions, most companies basically suspended quotations while actively purchasing copper scrap as raw material stocking before the Chinese New Year. Trading in the secondary copper rod market was mainly driven by traders. Last Thursday, copper prices hit a new high again, with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap reaching 6,000 yuan/mt. Traders quickly shorted copper futures and purchased secondary copper rod to arbitrage the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap. Today, as copper prices fell sharply, they closed their futures positions and sold the secondary copper rod they held.
Prices: On the macro front, affected by the US government shutdown, the US employment report scheduled for next Friday will be delayed, increasing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, US January manufacturing data returned to expansion territory, causing the US dollar index to extend gains and putting pressure on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, arrivals of imported cargo increased, while domestic cargo arrivals remained stable, leading to relatively ample spot supply. Demand side, affected by the pullback in copper prices, downstream procurement sentiment recovered. Inventory side, affected by previous high copper prices, SMM inventory in mainstream regions across China as of February 2 increased 1.82% WoW from last Monday. Overall, after macro sentiment cooled and copper prices fell, downstream consumption showed signs of recovery. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound at high levels today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use it to replace their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]