February 3, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) continued to fluctuate downward during the night session, extending the previous day's limit-down trend, and closed at 360,000 yuan/mt, down 12.38%.
Macro: (1) Tesla's sales slump in Europe continued into 2026, with new car registrations plummeting sharply in two major EV markets. According to data from the French Automotive Manufacturers Association (PFA), Tesla's sales in France plunged 42% YoY in January, with only 661 units sold, hitting the lowest level in over three years. In Norway, which was one of Tesla's few bright spots in Europe last year, January registrations plummeted 88%. Tesla faced generally weak demand across Europe in 2025, partly due to consumer backlash against Elon Musk's work for the Trump administration and his public support for right-wing political figures in countries like Germany and the UK. Last year, Norway was the only major market in Europe where Tesla achieved growth, with full-year registrations rising 41%, partly driven by consumers making purchases ahead of policy changes. However, in January this year, the Norwegian government tightened rules for EV VAT exemptions, leading to a 76% plunge in industry-wide sales, from which Tesla was not spared. (2) The "Integrated PV, ESS, Charging and Swapping Project - NIO Battery Swapping Station | LONGi Global Distributed R&D Center, Jiaxing," jointly developed by LONGi Green Energy Technology and the premium smart EV brand NIO, was officially inaugurated in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province. This project deeply integrates PV power generation, energy storage, charging and swapping, and smart energy management, aiming to create a closed-loop ecosystem around core transportation scenarios that combines green power generation, safe energy storage, and efficient electricity usage, providing a replicable and scalable benchmark model for regional low-carbon transportation.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt production for maintenance in February, entering the Chinese New Year holiday period. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchasing remains cautious, pre-holiday restocking is largely complete, and downstream enterprises will gradually begin production halts for the holiday.
Spot Market: The period before the Chinese New Year is a traditional off-season for demand, with production activities weakening in downstream sectors such as solder and consumer electronics. However, the continuously declining prices have stimulated purchasing enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, leading to a slight recovery in overall spot market transactions.
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