The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released the January 2026 China PMI today (31st). The data shows that in January, China's manufacturing market demand tightened somewhat, but enterprise production maintained an expansionary trend, with the industrial structure continuing to optimize; the service sector operated relatively stably, with business expectations continuously improving. The January 2026 China manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The January equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the high-tech manufacturing PMI was 52%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are developing steadily and positively, with the manufacturing industrial structure continuously optimizing.
In January, the China PMI pulled back
—Interpretation by NBS Senior Statistician Huo Lihui on the January 2026 China PMI
On January 31, 2026, the NBS Service Sector Survey Center and the CFLP released the China PMI. In response, NBS Senior Statistician Huo Lihui provided an interpretation.
In January, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8% respectively, down 0.8, 0.8, and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in economic prosperity levels.
I. The Manufacturing PMI Dropped Slightly, Production Continues to Expand
In January, some manufacturing sectors entered the traditional off-season, coupled with still insufficient effective market demand, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decline in prosperity level from the previous month.
(i) Enterprise production continued to expand. The production index was 50.6%, above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production remained in expansion; the new orders index was 49.2%, showing a pullback in market demand. By industry, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and sideline food processing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other equipment industries were all above 56.0%, with rapid release of supply and demand; the two indices for petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, as well as the automotive industry, were below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in related industry market demand and a pullback in enterprise production.
(ii) Both price indices rebounded. Influenced by recent increases in the prices of some commodities, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the ex-factory price index rose above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months, indicating an overall improvement in the level of manufacturing market prices. From an industry perspective, the purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and electrical machinery and equipment all rose to above 55.0%, indicating an overall increase in the general levels of raw material procurement and product selling prices in related industries; both price indices in industries such as wood processing and furniture, and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing fell below the threshold.
(III) The PMI of large enterprises continues to remain above the threshold. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, still within the expansion territory, demonstrating the continuous supporting role of large enterprises; the PMIs of medium-sized and small enterprises were 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, dropping back slightly by 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, with their prosperity levels pulling back slightly.
(IV) High-tech manufacturing continues to lead. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 52.0%, remaining at a relatively high level of 52.0% or above for two consecutive months, indicating a sustained positive development trend in related industries. The PMI of equipment manufacturing was 50.1%, remaining within the expansion territory. The PMIs of consumer goods industries and energy-intensive industries were 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, with their prosperity levels pulling back slightly.
(V) Enterprises' expectations remain optimistic. The expectations index for production and business activities was 52.6%, continuing to remain above the threshold. From an industry perspective, the expectations indices for production and business activities in industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food, beverage, and refined tea have remained within a relatively high prosperity range of above 56.0% for two consecutive months, indicating strong confidence among related enterprises in the recent development of the industry.
II. The business activity index of the non-manufacturing sector has pulled back slightly, with a relatively high level of activity in the financial market
In January, influenced by factors such as a decline in the prosperity of industries like construction, the business activity index of the non-manufacturing sector was 49.4%, dropping back slightly by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight pullback in the overall prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector.
(I) The prosperity of the service sector has dropped back slightly. The business activity index of the service sector was 49.5%, dropping back slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the business activity indices of industries such as monetary financial services, capital market services, and insurance were all above 65.0%, indicating a relatively high level of market activity; the business activity index of the real estate industry fell below 40.0%, with an overall weak prosperity level. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectations index of the service sector was 57.1%, rising by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that service enterprises have enhanced their confidence in recent market development.
(II) The prosperity of the construction industry has declined. Affected by factors such as recent low temperatures and the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, production and construction in the construction industry have slowed down, with the business activity index at 48.8%, dropping back significantly by 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a noticeable pullback in the prosperity level of the construction industry. From a market expectations perspective, the Business Activity Expectations Index for the construction sector was 49.8%, falling below the threshold, indicating cautious expectations among construction enterprises regarding industry development.
III. Composite PMI Output Index Slightly Below the Threshold
In January, the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating a general slowdown in enterprise production and operating activities compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively.