The most-traded BC copper contract closed down 2.85%, as speculative fervor cooled, weighing on copper prices [SMM BC Copper Review]

According to foreign media reports, Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco has acknowledged that it is unlikely to achieve its long-standing goal of restoring annual copper production to 1.7 million metric tons within the next four to five years, reflecting the operational challenges facing the world's largest copper producer. Codelco Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said the company expects another difficult year for production, noting that output targets have consistently been missed over the past seven years due to delays in major projects and operational setbacks. The company previously issued 2026 production guidance of 1.331-1.357 million metric tons and is now prioritizing realistic performance expectations over ambitious volume targets. Fontaine said Codelco plans to unveil a recovery strategy in October or November, with greater emphasis on improving profitability and capital efficiency rather than maximizing production. As part of the review, approvals for new investment projects have been suspended while the company reassesses capital allocation to ensure acceptable returns. He also indicated that Codelco intends to expand partnerships with private mining companies to advance projects that it cannot fully finance on its own. Options for the company's 49% stake in the El Abra copper mine, including a potential reduction of its holding, remain under evaluation. Codelco's revised outlook highlights the structural challenges confronting global copper supply, including aging mines, declining ore grades and rising development costs. With demand from electrification, electric vehicles and data centers continuing to grow, persistent production constraints at a major supplier could reinforce expectations of a tighter global copper market and provide continued support for long-term copper prices.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, downstream users will still mainly make just-in-time procurement, but inquiries and transaction enthusiasm during the day improved compared to the earlier period, and purchase sentiment rebounded continuously, providing some support to spot premiums. Approaching month-end, some traders and suppliers still have demand to replenish cargoes with invoices dated this month, with relatively strong purchase willingness. However, low-priced cargoes are hard to find in the market, and offers for standard-quality copper with invoices dated this month remain at a premium of around 300 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, offers for cargoes with invoices dated next month and non-registered copper are relatively lower, and the price spread between invoices and brands remains pronounced. Overall, supported by moderate just-in-time procurement from downstream, month-end demand for invoice replenishment, and limited availability of low-priced cargoes, Shanghai spot copper against the 2608 contract is expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, with its overall center possibly edging up steadily.