Solid-State Battery Analysis for January 2026: A Critical Year of Technical Verification and Capacity Surge on the Eve of Mass Production

SMM January 30 News:

Key Points: In January 2026, the solid-state battery industry chain accelerated comprehensively across materials, battery cells, capacity, and capital. Multiple technical routes—including ultra-high-nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon carbon anodes, and sulfide/oxide electrolytes—achieved breakthroughs in parallel, with planned capacity reaching the tens of GWh level. Automaker-driven prototype verification is being conducted intensively, marking the industry’s transition from R&D to pilot and mass production. 2026 is set to become a critical “verification year” for the scaled installation of semi-solid-state batteries and tackling engineering challenges of all-solid-state batteries, heralding the beginning of industry differentiation and consolidation.

Introduction: 2026, Where the Dream Begins
At the beginning of 2026, the global solid-state battery industry accelerated abruptly, shifting from laboratory sample competitions to full-scale preparations on the eve of mass production. Material systems achieved breakthroughs at multiple points, capacity plans were rolled out intensively, automaker validation proceeded at a rapid pace, and capital continued to flow into key segments. Technical pathways gradually converged amid diversified exploration, with the industrialisation of sulfide electrolytes standing out prominently. Ultra-high-nickel cathodes and silicon carbon anodes have become key pillars for increasing energy density. This report systematically reviews key industry chain developments in January, provides in-depth analysis of progress in cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and battery projects, and aims to reveal the internal logic and core challenges as solid-state batteries advance from technological breakthroughs to scaled commercial application, while offering forward-looking judgments for 2026—a critical year for verification and differentiation.

I. Cathode Materials: Dual Breakthroughs in Ultra-High-Nickel and Lithium-Rich Manganese-Based Routes Accelerate Industrialisation
In January, the cathode materials sector exhibited parallel development along two mainstream technical routes: ultra-high-nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based. Easpring Technology’s “dual-phase composite ultra-high-nickel cathode material” was included in the SASAC achievement catalog, signifying that the material has passed authoritative certification toward achieving a 350 Wh/kg energy density target. Its integrated 14 patent achievements and specific precursor design provide a feasible solution to challenges such as cycling stability and interfacial side reactions in ultra-high-nickel materials. Meanwhile, the cobalt-free lithium-rich manganese-based route continues to attract attention due to its higher theoretical capacity and cost advantages. GEM disclosed its patent for monocrystalline cobalt-free lithium-rich manganese-based cathode material, which uses a unique grain-boundary separation assistant and a two-stage sintering process aimed at resolving issues such as low initial efficiency and voltage decay, with explicit adaptation for solid-state batteries. Yixing Canmax (controlled by Canmax) invested 1.12 billion yuan to build a mass production line with an annual capacity of 5,200 mt of high-nickel ternary cathode material for solid-state batteries, of which a 200 mt pilot line is already in operation, indicating that upstream segments of the industry chain are actively advancing laboratory achievements toward scaled production. Chery’s Exeed brand announced that its “Rhino S” all-solid-state battery will adopt a lithium manganese-based cathode, targeting a cell energy density of 600 Wh/kg. Although this is a long-term plan, it reflects automakers’ forward-looking layout for next-generation cathode materials. In summary, the trends toward higher nickel content and manganese-based cathodes are clear, and 2026 will be a critical year for material system optimization, verification of engineering and mass-production capabilities, and customer sample testing.

II. Anode Materials: Accelerated Industrialisation of Silicon Carbon Anodes, Lithium-Metal-Free Anodes Emerge
The core of anode materials lies in improving energy density, with silicon carbon anodes and lithium metal anodes being ideal partners for solid-state batteries. The 50,000 mt annual silicon carbon anode project of Furi Co., Ltd. has completed its environmental assessment, and its 200 mt pilot capacity is operating at full load. Qingdao Zhengwang's first batch of silicon carbon anodes produced via the CVD method has been successfully manufactured, indicating that the preparation process for silicon-based anodes is transitioning from the laboratory to scaled trial production. The CVD (chemical vapor deposition) method, due to its advantage in uniformly coating carbon layers on silicon particles, is regarded as one of the mainstream processes for high-end silicon carbon anodes. The 10,000 mt-level silicon carbon anode material industrialisation project launched by Gotion High-tech in Lujiang further demonstrates the determination of leading battery enterprises to extend their reach into upstream core materials. On the other hand, patent progress has been made in "lithium-metal-free anode" technology targeting lithium metal. Qingtao Energy's patent reveals a design featuring an elastic buffer layer on the anode current collector side to accommodate volume changes during lithium deposition/stripping, which is one of the key engineering solutions for practical lithium metal anodes. By 2026, silicon carbon anodes are expected to achieve GWh-level applications alongside the initial volume production of semi-solid/solid-state batteries, while true lithium metal anodes will remain in the prototype development and safety validation stage, still some distance away from mass production.

III. Electrolyte Materials: Sulfide Route in Full Swing, Oxide Route Steadily Advances, Low-Cost Solutions Emerge
Electrolytes are the core of solid-state batteries. January developments highlighted the sulfide route as the most active in industrialisation, with the oxide route advancing steadily and disruptive low-cost solutions emerging.
Sulfide Electrolytes: High concentration of industrial capital and R&D investment. Gotion High-tech (Qianrui Technology) announced an environmental assessment for its 10,000 mt annual sulfide solid-state electrolyte material project, with products subdivided into systems such as lithium phosphorus sulfur chlorine, lithium phosphorus sulfur chlorine bromine, and lithium phosphorus sulfur chlorine iodine, indicating that its technology has entered the mass production planning stage for specific formulations. Easpring Technology plans a 3,000 mt annual solid-state electrolyte production line (including 1,000 mt of sulfide) in Jintan, Changzhou. Enpower Solid-State announced the completion of debugging for its mt-level pilot line. Wanrun Co., Ltd. began construction of a lithium sulfide pilot line, while Yahua Group and Haichen Pharmaceutical are about to submit samples of their lithium sulfide products. Xingfa Group's 10,000 mt-level phosphorus pentasulfide (a key precursor) project is expected to commence production in July. These events outline the rapid formation of a complete industry chain from key raw materials (phosphorus pentasulfide, lithium sulfide) to electrolyte synthesis (sulfide solid-state electrolytes). BMW's prototype line collaboration with Solid Power and Enpower's strategic partnership with Enjie (with Enjie supplying sulfide electrolytes) indicate that international automakers and material giants are deeply committed to this technological route.
Oxide Electrolytes: Represented by Qingtao Energy, its Phase II 15 GWh project (first phase 5 GWh) in Chengdu is steadily advancing, focusing on the oxide route. Easpring Technology's plans also include 2,000 mt/year oxide electrolyte capacity.
Innovative Low-Cost Solutions: The lithium zirconium aluminum chlorine oxygen electrolyte developed by Ma Cheng's team at the University of Science and Technology of China claims a cost of less than 5% of mainstream sulfides and addresses the dependency on stacking pressure. If this achievement can successfully bridge the gap from laboratory to engineering, it may have a profound impact on the existing electrolyte technology landscape.
Comprehensive Forecast: In 2026, sulfide electrolytes are expected to transition from kg-level to mt-level supply, accompanied by efforts to overcome industrialisation bottlenecks such as cost, consistency, and air stability. Oxide electrolytes will continue to expand their application in existing semi-solid-state batteries. The "ultimate winner" among electrolyte routes remains uncertain, but diversified technological competition will persist throughout the year.

IV. Solid-State Battery Projects: Transitioning from Prototype Verification to the Eve of Mass Production, with Concurrent Investment and Capacity Building

In January, the industry was clearly in the "eve of mass production," transitioning from technology R&D and prototype testing to the construction of pilot lines and mass production planning.

In terms of capacity layout: Domestic planning is extensive. Top Technology (Tuo Yi Gu Neng) planned a 6-billion-yuan, 15 GWh solid-state battery project in Inner Mongolia; WELION New Energy, in addition to expanding its Huzhou base, signed a joint venture with a Shandong local state-owned enterprise for a 15 GWh project in Jiangning; Jinlongyu announced the construction of a 2 GWh mass production line in Shenzhen; Qingtao Energy's Chengdu Phase II and Jinyu New Energy's 1.2 GWh production line commenced operation, among others. The cumulative announced capacity plans are already considerable. However, a rational perspective is needed, as most of these are phased constructions. The actual operational capacity in 2026 is still expected to be primarily at the GWh level and concentrated in semi-solid-state batteries.

In terms of technical verification: Automakers have become a key driving force. Dongfeng Motor completed the construction of its 350 Wh/kg solid-state battery pilot line and initiated winter calibration; Geely announced it will complete the offline installation of its self-developed all-solid-state battery pack in vehicles by 2026; Changan's "Golden Bell Cover" battery and Chery's "Rhino S" battery both announced vehicle installation verification for 2026; Hongqi's all-solid-state battery pack has already been installed in a real vehicle. Internationally, Samsung SDI developed a 9-series high-nickel semi-solid-state prototype; BMW, Toyota, and Volkswagen (via QuantumScape) all plan to advance pilot line construction or sample testing in 2026.

In terms of capital markets: Financing activities are active. Enterprises in different segments of the industry chain, such as Yinshi New Material (sulfide electrolyte), Jinghe Energy (all-solid-state battery cells), and Ion Energy (polymer-based solid-state), secured financing ranging from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of yuan, indicating high capital attention on specific technical nodes within solid-state batteries.

Outlook for 2026: The industry is expected to present a scenario of "a hundred flowers blooming" alongside "survival of the fittest." More companies will release high-energy-density (350-400 Wh/kg level) battery prototypes or engineering samples and validate their basic performance through rigorous tests like winter and summer calibration. The first batch of vehicle models based on semi-solid-state technology are expected to achieve small-batch deliveries (e.g., high-end models, commercial vehicles for specific scenarios). However, the industrialisation of all-solid-state batteries still faces a series of challenges, including interface impedance, cost, mass production processes, and equipment. 2026 will be a year for exposing these problems and focusing on breakthroughs. Some technical routes or companies may fall behind due to an inability to overcome engineering bottlenecks or funding shortages, and industry concentration is expected to begin increasing.

V. Overseas Developments: Diversified Technology Pathways and Initial Commercialization Attempts
Overseas R&D in solid-state batteries is progressing along multiple technology pathways, with commercial breakthroughs being attempted in specific sectors. US-based 24M's semi-solid electrode process focuses on the ESS sector, and the commissioning of its first industrial-scale production line holds demonstrative significance. Finland's Donut Lab claims that its all-solid-state battery (with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg) will be installed in electric motorcycles for mass production and delivery, marking the world's first publicly announced case of commercial installation of an all-solid-state battery. Although the scale is limited, its symbolic importance is significant. France's Blue Solutions, after accumulating experience in commercial vehicles, is shifting toward the passenger vehicle market and has established a pilot recycling line, reflecting a focus on the full life cycle. US-based Factorial Energy has passed third-party safety tests, and QuantumScape has delivered test samples to Audi, indicating steady progress in polymer-oxide composite systems and oxide thin-film systems. The establishment of Europe's Argylium aims to integrate resources to tackle the scaling of sulfide electrolytes, highlighting Europe's urgency in building a local solid-state battery supply chain. Overall, overseas companies are prioritizing the initial commercial application of solid-state batteries in niche sectors (such as ESS, two-wheelers, and medical devices), while leading automakers and battery giants are accelerating their deployment in the passenger vehicle segment.

VI. Full-Year Forecast for 2026
2026 is expected to be a critical "validation year" and "differentiation year" in the industrialisation of solid-state batteries.
Technologically, semi-solid-state battery technology is expected to mature, achieving scaled installation in high-end NEVs, eVTOLs, and specialized ESS applications, with energy densities generally reaching 350–400 Wh/kg, and low-temperature and fast-charging performance being validated. All-solid-state batteries will continue to break performance records at the laboratory level, but the focus of industrialisation will shift from "producing samples" to "solving mass-production engineering challenges," such as long-term stability of solid-solid interface contact, consistency and cost control of electrolytes at the 10kt scale, and the forming and packaging processes of all-solid-state battery cells. The safety of sulfide electrolytes, particularly during mass production, will receive unprecedented attention.
Industrially, collaboration across the industry chain is expected to deepen, forming a pattern of tight integration between "materials-battery-automaker" (e.g., Enli-Enjie, BMW-Solid Power). Capacity construction will accelerate, but actual effective output will depend on the progress of technology validation and market demand. Capital market investment in solid-state batteries will become more rational, concentrating on enterprises with core materials technology, validated pilot production lines, and binding partnerships with clear customers. On the policy front, China's MIIT has identified all-solid-state batteries as a key technological breakthrough direction, and more industrial policies and standard-setting initiatives are anticipated.
In the market, explosive growth of all-solid-state batteries is not expected. The mainstream trend will be the increasing penetration of semi-solid-state batteries in niche segments. News about vehicle installation validation of all-solid-state batteries will appear frequently, but large-scale mass production and market disruption are not anticipated until after 2027. The competition in 2026 will essentially be a comprehensive contest of technological pathway feasibility, engineering capability, and supply chain integration, leading to the industry's first round of consolidation.

According to SMM forecasts, all-solid-state battery shipments will reach 13.5 GWh by 2028, while semi-solid-state battery shipments will reach 160 GWh. Global lithium-ion battery demand is projected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh by 2030, with the EV sector's lithium-ion battery demand showing a CAGR of around 11% from 2024 to 2030, ESS lithium-ion battery demand at a CAGR of about 27%, and consumer electronics lithium battery demand at a CAGR of roughly 10%. Global solid-state battery penetration is estimated at about 0.1% in 2025, with all-solid-state battery penetration expected to reach around 4% by 2030, and global solid-state battery penetration potentially approaching 10% by 2035.

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