Copper Prices and Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Exert Dual Pressure, Spot Discounts Struggle to Recover Amid High Volatility [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Today, the SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2602 contract were quoted at a discount of 220-80 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 150 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged between 102,700 and 106,120 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2602 contract fell initially, then stabilized and rebounded. After opening with a slight rise, it touched a high of 108,940 yuan/mt, then began to decline, testing a low of 102,820 yuan/mt twice, before gradually stabilizing and fluctuating between 103,500 and 104,600 yuan/mt. The closing price was 104,330 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby contracts ranged from 430 to 280 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the current month's SHFE copper contract fluctuated between a loss of 340 yuan/mt and a profit of 200 yuan/mt.

At the start of the morning session, suppliers exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. High-quality copper from Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) was quoted at a discount of 100-60 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 210-150 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers lowered their prices, with standard-quality copper quoted at a discount of 250-100 yuan/mt. Among these, Luzfang and JCC were quoted at a discount of 160-100 yuan/mt; Jinchuan ISA, Jintun PC, Yuguang, etc., were quoted at a discount of 200-180 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers further reduced prices. Luzfang and JCC were quoted at a discount of 180-120 yuan/mt, while small quantities of Indonesian and Xikuang stocks were quoted at a discount of 230 yuan/mt. Non-registered brands started to trade at a discount of 330 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Although copper prices pulled back from historical highs during the day, prices remain elevated, which will continue to suppress downstream actual procurement demand and make it difficult to provide effective support for spot prices. In terms of market structure, the import window is fluctuating near the break-even point. If it remains open, it will introduce overseas supply, increasing domestic supply pressure. Meanwhile, although the Contango spread between nearby contracts narrowed slightly, suppliers still have a strong willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, which will continue to divert available spot supply. If copper prices fail to decline further next week to effectively stimulate buying interest, the market will continue its pattern of "high prices, weak transactions."