Vale's Copper Production Sees Strong Growth, LME Copper Rises Sharply Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, January 30, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,945/mt overnight, fluctuated upward and touched a high of $14,527.5/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices moved straight down to test $13,400/mt, before fluctuating upward again and finally closing at $13,705/mt, up 4.46%, with trading volume at 75,200 lots and open interest at 331,000 lots, an increase of 1,322 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance showed bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 110,310 yuan/mt overnight, fluctuated upward and touched a high of 114,160 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices gradually moved down to test 104,550 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward and finally closing at 106,900 yuan/mt, up 0.2%, with trading volume at 497,800 lots and open interest at 235,000 lots, a decrease of 8,326 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance showed bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News side:
(1) On January 28, Vale, the mining giant headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, released its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 production and sales report. The report indicated that in 2025, all of Vale's businesses achieved strong operational performance, exceeding the production guidance targets set at the beginning of the year. Iron ore and copper production reached their highest levels since 2018, at 336 million mt and 382,000 mt respectively; nickel production also reached its highest level since 2022, at 177,000 mt. In Q4 2025, copper production totaled 108,100 mt, an increase of 6,300 mt, up 6% YoY.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of January 29, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a unilateral strong upward trend, fluctuating around 102,600-103,100 yuan/mt after opening, then gradually started to rise, with the upward momentum continuously accelerating, the price climbed all the way, touching a high of 108,920 yuan/mt, setting a new record high again, and closed at 108,230 yuan/mt at the end of the session. The price spread between futures contracts for the front month Contango ranged between 490 yuan/mt and 340 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper spot against the front-month contract ranged from a loss of 370 yuan/mt to a profit of 110 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, in the Shanghai spot copper market in the morning, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and spot discounts narrowed slightly. Later in the morning, copper prices rose rapidly, setting new highs again. If prices remain high tomorrow, it will suppress downstream actual purchase willingness. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the front month Contango widened, further strengthening suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, with limited circulating supply in the market, while imported copper has turned to a small profit. If the import window continues to open, it may alleviate supply pressure.
(2) Guangdong: On January 29, spot #1 copper in Guangdong was at a discount of 350-120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 235 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 410-390 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper in Guangdong was 102,645 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,480 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices surged wildly while downstream consumption was sluggish, spot premiums retreated after a rapid rise, and overall trading was quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On January 29, warrant prices were $16-30/mt, QP February, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $18-28/mt, QP February, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at -$10 to $0/mt, QP February, with the average price up $7/mt from the previous trading day. The quotations referred to shipments arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: On January 29 at 11:30, futures closed at 108,230 yuan/mt, up 5,060 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were -170 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap rose 2,000 yuan/mt MoM. In Guangdong, bare bright copper prices were 92,200-92,400 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 6,631 yuan/mt, up 973 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,250 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices hit new highs due to capital-driven factors. Many traders placed orders for secondary copper rods, mainly through futures arbitrage, while downstream orders almost disappeared.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump planned to announce a new Fed chair and pressured for a significant interest rate cut, coupled with the risk of another US federal government shutdown due to funding deadlock, which collectively put pressure on the US dollar. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran, along with live military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, fueled geopolitical risk aversion, driving gold and silver prices to record highs. This spillover effect also helped copper prices break through and fluctuate at highs. During the night session, as bulls took profits, copper prices saw some correction. Fundamentally, supply was loose, with increased arrivals of domestic sources. Demand was suppressed by high copper prices, leading to weak purchase willingness and overall sluggish demand. Overall, it is expected that copper prices will encounter resistance today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to SMM.]