In late January 2026, China’s domestic electrolytic manganese market has been operating under a pattern of elevated raw material pressure, optimized supply and stable demand support. Prices, which had been on a continuous correction, have gradually stopped falling and rebounded, accompanied by a recovery in market sentiment. Coupled with the release of downstream restocking demand ahead of the Spring Festival, the industry generally expects a mild price uptick in the short term, followed by a gradual return to stability as the supply-demand balance improves.
Prominent Raw Material Pressure, High Sulfuric Acid Prices as a Core Constraint
Electrolytic manganese producers are still under significant cost pressure from upstream raw materials. Sustained high prices of key feedstocks continue to squeeze profit margins, forming important support for producers to defend prices. Among them, sulfuric acid, a critical raw material for electrolytic manganese production, has seen a slight pullback recently but remains generally at a high level, providing rigid support for production costs.
Although the manganese ore market has not witnessed a sharp rise, overall inventories are at low levels. In addition, geopolitical factors have extended the shipping cycle for manganese ore from Africa to 90 days, casting uncertainty over the stability of raw material supply. This has further intensified procurement pressure on electrolytic manganese enterprises and constrained their production enthusiasm to a certain extent.
Industry Alliance Steps Up Regulation, Supply Structure Continuously Optimized
To cope with market volatility and standardize industry order, China’s electrolytic manganese industry alliance has stepped up efforts recently. By holding industry meetings and launching initiatives on capacity control, the alliance has optimized supply allocation, effectively alleviating the supply-demand imbalance and laying a foundation for the market to stop declining and rebound.
In terms of industry structure, market concentration in the electrolytic manganese sector has kept improving. The output share of the top five enterprises (CR5) has exceeded 50%, with leading players such as Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry playing a prominent and central role in the alliance’s regulatory actions.
Stable Demand Provides Solid Market Support
While the downstream demand structure of electrolytic manganese continues to evolve, overall demand remains stable, with dual support from traditional and emerging sectors forming a solid foundation for the market.
On the traditional demand side, the steel industry remains a major consumer of electrolytic manganese. Although its demand share has declined from 65% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, the overall consumption volume has stayed steady. Recently, steel mill tender prices have trended upward steadily. In January 2026, Baosteel’s electrolytic manganese tender price (Baoshan site) reached RMB 18,300 per ton, marking a notable rise from previous levels and offering strong support to market prices.
On the emerging demand side, the new energy sector has become the core engine driving electrolytic manganese demand growth. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have ramped up procurement to prepare for post-holiday production. This concentrated restocking activity has further propelled the market to stop declining and rebound.
Market Outlook: Mild Uptick Before Holiday, Followed by Expected Stabilization
In the short term, downstream restocking demand will persist ahead of the Spring Festival. Combined with continued high raw material cost support and ongoing alliance-led regulation, the tight supply situation in the electrolytic manganese market is unlikely to change fundamentally. Prices are expected to maintain a mild upward trend, with the price of 99.7% electrolytic manganese flakes forecast to fluctuate within the range of RMB 18,200–18,400 per ton.
Looking ahead, with the advancement of green transformation and rising market concentration, the electrolytic manganese market will gradually move away from drastic volatility and enter a stage of high-quality development.
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