Macro factors support futures prices generally stable with slight rise Northern silicon enterprise shipments increase [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM January 29: Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices were basically stable overall this week, with slight increases for individual grades; futures prices, supported by the macro front and capital sentiment, fluctuated upward. As of January 29, SMM east China oxygen-passed 553# silicon was quoted at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW; 441# silicon was quoted at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; 3303# silicon was quoted at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the operating center of the most-traded contract moved up WoW, with the highest point touching 9,000 yuan/mt. On the afternoon of January 29 (Thursday), the most-traded SI2605 contract closed at 8,925 yuan/mt. On the transaction side, shipments from some silicon enterprises in the north via futures listing increased, with the center of listed point prices concentrated at 8,950-9,000 yuan/mt. Some downstream users conducted stockpiling purchases or tenders before the Chinese New Year, with the market mainly purchasing as needed.

Demand side, the weekly operating rate for silicone increased slightly WoW; affected by maintenance plans for some monomer capacity in February, there are expectations for a decline in the silicone monomer operating rate going forward. The weekly operating rate for polysilicon was basically stable; polysilicon enterprises have largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, and the industry's operating rate in February is expected to remain low overall. Aluminum alloy enterprises showed divergent operating performance: primary aluminum alloy enterprises operated basically stably, maintaining normal production during the Chinese New Year, while secondary aluminum alloy enterprises, affected by persistently high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption and the approaching holiday, saw increased production cuts and shutdowns, with the operating rate for secondary aluminum alloy entering a downward trend.

Supply side, the production cut plan for large plants in Xinjiang is expected to be gradually implemented on January 31; the silicon metal operating rate is expected to maintain a downward trend, and the weak supply-demand pattern for silicon metal remains unchanged. Macro sentiment is strong; influenced by excitement in precious and non-ferrous metals capital sentiment, silicon metal futures prices also found support on the downside, while upward price movement is constrained by hedging pressure and demand limitations, leading to prices consolidating narrowly within a range.

Polysilicon: This week's polysilicon price index was 51.32 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon quoted at 48-57 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon quoted at 48-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices saw a certain decline this week; affected by anti-monopoly factors, market expectations are for continued price decreases, but against the backdrop of meetings, a clear wait-and-see sentiment combined with the current off-season resulted in few market transactions, with only very few orders concluded at 48 yuan/kg. Some traders previously sold at 45-49 yuan/kg. Some top-tier enterprises reduced or halted production, continuing to hold prices firm. With this week's meeting concluded, market transactions are expected to gradually materialize subsequently.

Wafer:Wafer prices experienced a sharp decline this week, with N-type 183 wafers priced at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, 210R wafers quoted at 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers quoted at 1.5-1.55 yuan/piece. The main reasons for the drop in wafer prices this week were "lower costs and weakening demand." Specifically, raw material prices, influenced by inventory patterns and policy adjustments, created strong expectations for price reductions during wafer procurement, leading to lower wafer selling prices under the cost-based pricing logic. Additionally, battery demand was impacted by a significant rise in spot silver prices, with a premium exceeding 1,000 yuan/kg making it unsustainable for most battery manufacturers, thereby reducing short-term stockpiling and restocking demand from battery enterprises. Against the backdrop of declining costs and weakening orders, wafer prices saw a notable decrease. However, our dynamic detection indicates that wafers still maintain a leading overall profit margin among the three main material segments excluding polysilicon.

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