Amidst a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated at highs, with downstream enterprises adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On January 29, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 fluctuated within the range of 436,000-454,000 yuan, and closed at 446,130 yuan/mt, up 0.28% from the previous settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin was quoted at $56,060/mt, down 1.29%, with both SHFE and LME tin consolidating at high levels. From a macro perspective, frequent geopolitical conflicts are impacting US dollar credibility, increasing market attention on nonferrous metals as safe-haven and value-storage assets. However, macro sentiment is highly volatile, and caution is warranted against potential pullback risks due to shifts in capital sentiment.

Additionally, under the trade agreement reached between India and the EU, India has agreed to grant European automakers a quota far exceeding those in recent agreements, significantly reducing tariffs and opening greater access to its long-protected automotive market. The agreement will gradually allow up to 250,000 European-made cars to enter India at preferential tariff rates, a figure much higher than the 37,000 quota granted to the UK under another pact. Import tariffs on about 160,000 internal combustion engine cars will be reduced to 10% within five years, while for 90,000 EVs, tariffs will only begin to decrease in the tenth year to protect India's emerging EV market. The initial in-quota tariff for most vehicle categories will start at around 30%. Beyond this quota, the agreement also stipulates a reduction in tariffs for fuel-powered cars to 35% over ten years. Compared to India's current tariff of up to 110% on imported cars, this represents a substantial reduction. This unprecedented quota arrangement signals that both sides are reshaping economic relations through trade agreements. This move is expected to boost European auto exports to India and, combined with global new energy sector development, may drive long-term demand for related nonferrous metals. However, its actual transmission to the tin market will take time.

In terms of supply, although Indonesia's RKAB policy remains unclear, JFX trading activity is becoming more active, and concerns over supply shortages in Indonesia in January-February may ease.

Nevertheless, supply uncertainties in regions such as Myanmar and the DRC still require continuous attention. On the demand side, overall pressure persists. Pre-holiday restocking orders in the traditional sector have not seen significant volume due to high prices. Demand in the consumer electronics market is suppressed by rising metal prices, and although the PV sector has short-term expectations of an export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material prices are clearly dampening order growth, resulting in limited overall consumption support and continued sluggishness in the spot market.

In summary, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term, with no clear direction amid intertwined bullish and bearish factors. It is advisable to closely monitor overseas supply developments, changes in macro sentiment, inventory accumulation, and pre-holiday downstream production pace, and respond rationally to market fluctuations.