[Analysis by SMM] Export Rush Falls Short of Expectations

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose slightly. On the raw material side, cobalt sulphate prices held steady temporarily, while nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices increased slightly, collectively driving precursor prices higher. In the spot order market, discount levels changed relatively little this week, basically flat compared to last week. For long-term agreement orders, due to significant remaining uncertainty about future raw material price trends and ongoing stalemate in commercial terms between upstream and downstream players, several producers have decided to temporarily forgo signing long-term contracts. Instead, they are adopting monthly or quarterly short-term orders as a transitional measure to enhance flexibility for both parties in responding to market fluctuations. Discounts for such short-term orders generally increased year-on-year, and processing fees for some leading producers also rose.

On the demand side, leading producers recently maintained a high production pace, and a rush to export brought some order growth, but the scale fell short of previous expectations. In contrast, orders for small and medium-sized producers were relatively mediocre, with some deciding to complete orders before the Chinese New Year and enter a production halt holiday phase. Looking ahead to February, due to fewer working days, the traditional off-season, and planned maintenance shutdowns at some producers, overall production is expected to decline noticeably.