Copper prices hit another record high, with significant fluctuations in the price spread between futures contracts, and spot cargo transactions under pressure [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month's 2602 contract were quoted at a discount of 240 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, with the average price at a discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 102,450 to 105,920 yuan/mt. In the early session, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, fluctuating around 102,600–103,100 yuan/mt after opening, then gradually starting to rise, with the momentum accelerating continuously and the price climbing all the way to a high of 108,920 yuan/mt, setting a new historical record. By the close, the price was 108,230 yuan/mt. The contango spread between nearby contracts ranged from 490 yuan/mt to 340 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper's current month ranged from a loss of 370 yuan/mt to a profit of 110 yuan/mt.

In the early morning session, suppliers quoted high-quality copper from Guixi at a discount of 140 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 250–200 yuan/mt, with Zhongtiaoshan, Yuguang, Dajiang HS, Jintong Yusheng, etc., starting to trade at a discount of 250 yuan/mt, while Xiangguang, Lufang, JCC, etc., were quoted at a discount of 240–200 yuan/mt. Due to limited circulating supply in the market, transactions were quick, and suppliers adjusted prices rapidly, with prices rising slightly by 10–20 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper supply was tight, with only some Myanmar and BMK sources circulating, quoted at a discount of 290–280 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm increased, leading to further price hikes. Zhongtiaoshan, Dajiang HS, Southeast Tiefeng, etc., were quoted at a discount of 190 yuan/mt, while Xiangguang, Lufang, etc., had no quotes due to scarce supply. JCC was quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/mt, and some spot cargo from Yuguang, Jintong Yusheng, etc., was quoted at a discount of 250 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, in the Shanghai spot copper market during the morning session, suppliers are expected to have a strong willingness to hold prices firm, with spot discounts narrowing slightly. Shortly after the morning session, copper prices rose rapidly, hitting new highs again. If prices remain high tomorrow, downstream purchase willingness may be suppressed. From a market structure perspective, the contango spread between nearby contracts widened, further strengthening suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. With limited circulating supply in the market and imported copper turning to a small profit, if the import window remains open, supply pressure may ease.