SMM Tin Futures Review: SHFE and LME Tin Prices Fluctuate Synchronously at Highs, Market Adopts Cautious Wait-and-See Approach

On January 28, the most-traded SHFE tin 2603 contract fluctuated at highs, closed at 443,800 yuan/mt, up 2.11% intraday. On the LME side, the three-month tin contract closed at $55,250/mt. Both SHFE and LME markets consolidated.

According to news, recent massive investments in AI infrastructure by global internet giants and startups have driven a surge in DRAM demand, leading to significant price increases for memory products such as LPDDR5. Meanwhile, major DRAM producers are shifting capacity heavily toward HBM (high-bandwidth memory) dedicated for AI, further exacerbating shortages in consumer-grade DRAM. Development expectations in emerging sectors remain positive.

From the current fundamental perspective, with raw material prices fluctuating at highs for an extended period, many downstream enterprises are following up with small orders for rigid demand, mainly digesting orders. Terminal electronics enterprises face strong cost pressure due to broad gains in the metal sector, significantly suppressing demand. As the Chinese New Year approaches, some enterprises have already entered the holiday state early, resulting in sluggish spot market trading. Overall, tin prices are supported by macro sentiment and development expectations to fluctuate at highs, but caution is needed against volatility risks from a widening divergence between high prices and fundamentals.