Restocking Pace Slows Down, Iron Ore Prices in the Doldrums [SMM Brief Review]

Published: Jan 28, 2026 17:48

Save

Today, iron ore futures were in the doldrums. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 783 yuan/mt, down 0.70% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 3–5 yuan from the previous day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills purchased as needed and inquired cautiously, resulting in a slightly subdued overall trading atmosphere. This week's SMM pig iron production survey showed that China's average daily hot metal output reached 2.3492 million mt, dropping back slightly by 7,000 mt WoW. The main reason for the decline in production, rather than an increase, was that some blast furnace production resumptions originally scheduled for this week were postponed, leading to an actual resumption pace falling short of expectations. Looking ahead, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market expectations for tightened supervision of environmental protection-driven production restrictions and safety inspections have significantly increased. This potential policy disruption may constrain the progress of blast furnace production resumptions, thereby causing the recovery pace of hot metal output to fall below market expectations, leading to weak growth in hot metal production and directly weakening the rigid consumption demand for iron ore. Considering the current changes in the supply-demand pattern, against the backdrop of weakening demand drivers, iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure overall in the short term, trading in the doldrums.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Feb 6, 2026 18:30

Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums, with coking coal and coke staging a mid-week rise. At the beginning of the week, financial markets experienced sharp fluctuations, dragging down sentiment in the ferrous chain and leading to a pullback in futures. Mid-week, Indonesia's cut to coke production quotas drove coking coal and coke futures to lead the gains, though the impact was more pronounced on thermal coal, while coking coal's rise was largely sentiment-driven and short-lived. In the latter part of the week, finished products continued their seasonal inventory buildup, and support from the raw material side weakened, causing the entire ferrous chain to pull back. In the spot market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, purchasing activity slowed down further, with end-users only making limited, as-needed purchases at low prices.

Feb 6, 2026 18:30

Feb 6, 2026 18:09

MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)

Today, the DCE iron ore futures continued to hit bottom today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 760.5 yuan/mt, down 1.23% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 5–10 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day.

Feb 6, 2026 18:09

Feb 6, 2026 17:41

[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Trading and Inquiries Weakened, Chrome Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday] February 6, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day...

Feb 6, 2026 17:41