Restocking Pace Slows Down, Iron Ore Prices in the Doldrums [SMM Brief Review]

Today, iron ore futures were in the doldrums. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 783 yuan/mt, down 0.70% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 3–5 yuan from the previous day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills purchased as needed and inquired cautiously, resulting in a slightly subdued overall trading atmosphere. This week's SMM pig iron production survey showed that China's average daily hot metal output reached 2.3492 million mt, dropping back slightly by 7,000 mt WoW. The main reason for the decline in production, rather than an increase, was that some blast furnace production resumptions originally scheduled for this week were postponed, leading to an actual resumption pace falling short of expectations. Looking ahead, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market expectations for tightened supervision of environmental protection-driven production restrictions and safety inspections have significantly increased. This potential policy disruption may constrain the progress of blast furnace production resumptions, thereby causing the recovery pace of hot metal output to fall below market expectations, leading to weak growth in hot metal production and directly weakening the rigid consumption demand for iron ore. Considering the current changes in the supply-demand pattern, against the backdrop of weakening demand drivers, iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure overall in the short term, trading in the doldrums.