Wafer Price Range Narrows, Polysilicon Market Focuses on Transaction Finalization [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM Jan. 28:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices in Shaanxi edged down WoW, with the quotation range at 820-900 yuan/mt, while prices in other regions held steady. The average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 855 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal prices ranged around 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average silicon coal price in Inner Mongolia was about 1,260 yuan/mt, the average silicon mixed coal price in Gansu was about 930 yuan/mt, and the average pellet coal price was about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: Supply showed regional divergence. Some coal washing plants in Ningxia and Shaanxi entered the holiday period, leading to an overall supply decrease; while some plants in Gansu and Xinjiang maintained normal supply, producing based on sales.

Demand: With relatively stable operating rates at downstream silicon plants WoW, demand remained primarily rigid.

Silicon Metal

Price: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day, while #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. In futures, the most-traded contract rose to a weekly high of 9,000 yuan/mt, and some northern silicon enterprises increased shipments based on the spot-futures price spread. In the spot market, the price center for some specifications purchased by downstream users edged up slightly, while mainstream prices stayed stable.

Production:

Silicon metal capacity saw production cuts in northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan in January, leading to a decline in the operating rate for silicon metal. Expectations for additional production cuts emerged in Xinjiang by month-end, and the operating rate for silicon metal is expected to maintain a downward trend in February.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM statistics showed that social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 556,000 mt on Jan. 22, up 1,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price was 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW. Influenced by pre-holiday stockpiling purchases from downstream customers, overall market transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Some monomer enterprises with better new order bookings had presale orders scheduled until mid-to-late February.

D4: The quotation was 13,900-15,000 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation was 14,200-14,800 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

Raw Gum: The quotation was 14,600-15,000 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

Silicone Oil: The quotation was 15,200-15,800 yuan/mt yesterday, flat WoW.

Production:

Recently, operating rates at monomer enterprises saw both increases and decreases, resulting in slight fluctuations in weekly production.

Inventory:

Despite ongoing pre-holiday procurement by downstream sectors, inventory levels at individual enterprises remained low.

Polysilicon

Prices:

Quotes for N-type recharging polysilicon stood at 48-57 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 48-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 51.95 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices pulled back, mainly reflected in weaker indicative prices, with extremely limited market trading volume before the 28th meeting. However, both upstream and downstream sentiment leaned bearish. Some top-tier polysilicon enterprises continued to hold prices firm, while multiple downstream players and some polysilicon producers expected subsequent transactions to start with a "4", though concrete bulk deals might only materialize after the meeting concludes.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in February is expected to decline significantly, primarily due to production cuts or halts at top-tier enterprises, which currently underpins the price-holding confidence of some firms.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory increased again this week. The current market is quite chaotic, with limited new contracts signed. Inventory may continue to rise.

Wafer

Prices

Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.25-1.35 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers 1.35-1.45 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers 1.6-1.65 yuan/piece. High wafer prices saw a pullback, and the trading range showed signs of narrowing. After some second- and third-tier small factories sold off stock at low prices and prepared to shut down, the overall trading center for wafers shifted downward. With unclear upstream policy trends, market sentiment for passing on price increases wavered.

Production

Wafer production schedules increased slightly by about 3% in January, and February schedules are expected to maintain relatively high expectations. According to surveys, several enterprises currently have no definite plans for production cuts in February, while two firms have plans to increase production, and toll processing orders are recovering.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises continued inventory buildup, with trading volume declining after they held prices firm. Solar cell plants also slowed down their stockpiling and restocking pace due to high silver prices. Total wafer inventory is now approaching a reasonable level.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Current domestic prices for inner-layer sand were 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand 74,000-76,000 yuan/mt. Prices for 33-inch quartz crucibles were 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and for 36-inch quartz crucibles 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remained in a stalemate.

Production

Production schedules for quartz sand enterprises decreased slightly by 2% MoM in January, with domestic high-purity quartz sand producers cutting production to match wafer scheduling.

Inventory

At the beginning of 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on the wafer production schedule, and the quartz sand inventory level continued to increase.