The most-traded SHFE tin 2403 contract (SN2603) edged higher initially during the night session, then fluctuated and pulled back, as some enterprises gradually reduced operating rates ahead of the approaching Chinese New Year. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 28, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) rose slightly during the night session before pulling back amid fluctuations, narrowing its overall gains and closing at 436,450 yuan/mt, up 0.41%.

Macro: (1) Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have negotiated with Apple to significantly raise the price of LPDDR memory used in iPhones. Recently, massive investments in AI infrastructure by global internet giants and startups have driven a surge in DRAM demand, leading to sharp price increases for memory products such as LPDDR5. At the same time, major DRAM producers are shifting capacity heavily toward HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) dedicated to AI applications, further exacerbating the shortage of consumer-grade DRAM. Against this backdrop, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix chose to negotiate with Apple and substantially raise LPDDR memory prices for iPhones in Q1. Specifically, Samsung Electronics raised prices by over 80%, while SK Hynix increased them by nearly 100%. (2) Under a trade agreement reached between India and the European Union, India has agreed to grant European automakers a quota far exceeding recent deals with other partners, sharply cutting tariffs and opening greater access to its long-protected automotive market. The pact will gradually allow up to 250,000 European-made cars to enter India at preferential tariff rates, significantly higher than the 37,000 units allotted to the UK under a separate agreement. Import duties on about 160,000 internal combustion engine cars will be reduced to 10% over five years, while for 90,000 EVs, tariffs will only begin to drop in the tenth year to protect India's emerging EV market. Initial in-quota tariffs for most vehicle categories will start at around 30%. Beyond this quota, the agreement also sets a reduction to 35% for petrol and diesel cars over ten years. Compared to India's current tariffs of up to 110% on imported cars, this represents a substantial cut. This unprecedented quota arrangement marks a reshaping of economic ties through trade.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases remain cautious, with high prices significantly curbing actual consumption.

Spot market: Downstream solder and electronics enterprises generally maintain low inventory operations, purchasing cautiously only for immediate needs. As the Chinese New Year approaches, some companies have gradually reduced operating rates and entered the holiday early, keeping spot market transactions sluggish.

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