[SMM Analysis] Soaring Silver Prices Propel Solar Cell Tech Revolution, Putting Silver-Free Alternatives under Spotlight

With silver prices hitting record highs, the PV industry, as the largest industrial user of silver, is facing unprecedented cost pressure following the sharp rise in silver prices in 2025. Taking the 183mm module produced by specialized module enterprises as an example, the cost of silver paste accounted for 9.9% of the module's full cost in January 2025, but surged to 22.1% by 2026.

I. The Trend of Silver Reduction in PV and Its Impact on Silver Consumption in 2026
Amid overheated precious metal market conditions, solar cell and module manufacturers are forced to accelerate R&D in base metal substitution technologies. Currently, multiple technological routes have emerged in the market, with top-tier enterprises such as LONGi Green Energy, AIKO, and Jinko Solar releasing small-scale installation cases in an attempt to capture market share. However, according to SMM's understanding, the mainstream end-user installation share is still dominated by TOPCON cells using pure silver paste as the raw material. Various copper substitution solutions and other alternatives remain in the small-scale testing phase, and their performance and efficiency stability require over five years of practical application verification. This is primarily because solar cell products need to provide a 20-year warranty, and customers generally require experimental data demonstrating stable operation for at least five years before feeling confident to install.

Based on SMM's communication with module customers and the pilot production scale of top-tier enterprises, new installations in 2026 are expected to reach 435.37 GW. Among these, the production scale of silver-free technology-related solar cells is optimistically projected to reach a maximum of 50 GW, while large-scale application still awaits performance verification and reputation establishment. Therefore, despite recent frequent hot topics, SMM expects that the decline in solar cell production and the application of silver reduction in the PV sector in 2026 will reduce silver consumption by approximately 800-1,000 mt, a reduction of about 17% compared to the silver consumption demand of over 6,000 mt in the PV sector in 2025. As silver reduction technology has not yet been widely accepted by the market and has limited market share, it is difficult to become the main reason for a significant decline in PV silver consumption during 2026-2027. However, if the performance of recent installation projects by top-tier enterprises, after 3-5 years of data verification, can resolve issues such as increased contact resistance and power attenuation caused by copper oxidation, the future PV market and silver supply-demand might usher in new transformations.

II.Brief Analysis of Mainstream Silver-Free Technologies
A variety of silver-free/silver-reduction technology routes are emerging. Apart from niche experimental technologies, the current common technical routes mainly fall into the following three directions:

(1) HJT Silver-Coated Copper Technology
According to related enterprises, silver-coated copper powders and paste technologies with 10%–30% silver content, as well as solar cell production technologies, have long been mature and can be mass-produced. However, actual production is limited by the market share of HJT cells. Representative enterprises include Huasheng New Energy, among others.

(2) TOPCon Cell "High-Temperature Silver Seed Layer + Low-Temperature Silver-Coated Copper" Composite Solution
The high-temperature process environment of TOPCon cells creates technical barriers for base metal substitution. Therefore, the "high-temperature silver seed layer + low-temperature silver-coated copper" approach has become the mainstream solution. Top-tier enterprises such as Jinko Solar have already achieved mass production verification of this solution in certain production lines. Initial application on the back side of cells can reduce costs by 1–2 fen per watt. The industry expects small-scale mass production of TOPCon silver-copper paste by Q1 2026, while BC/HJT pure copper paste is projected to begin small-batch application by Q3 2026. Collaborative optimization among materials and equipment—such as finer lines, low-silver formulations, and improved patterning accuracy and yield—is key to implementation.

(3) Electroplating Copper Technology: The Ultimate Silver-Free Solution
For the PV industry, electroplating copper technology represents a completely independent reinvestment compared to traditional production lines, with equipment costs up to three times higher. Due to high initial investment and other factors, mass production has not yet been achieved. Representative enterprises such as AIKO have achieved 10 GW silver-free mass production at their Zhuhai base, reducing cost per watt by 0.03 yuan, with a subsequent 10 GW plan in Jinan to follow.

Soaring silver prices are accelerating technological transformation in the PV industry. Silver-free/silver-reduction has always been a trend in the industry’s technical development, and silver-reduction technologies for currently small-market-share BC, HJT, and next-generation high-efficiency cells are expected to penetrate rapidly. It should be noted, however, that the future PV industry may witness an era of technological integration, where TOPCon, HJT, XBC, and even new cell routes will coexist and complement each other, rather than simply replacing one another. Although silver-free technologies still face challenges in large-scale industrialization, practical applications by multiple enterprises indicate that technological breakthroughs are opening new development pathways for the industry. Over the next 3-5 years, as technology maturity improves and market acceptance grows, silverfree technologies are expected to play an increasingly important role in the PV industry, providing more economical and sustainable solutions for the global energy transition.