The most-traded SHFE tin contract surged after moving sideways around 430,000, with downstream purchase willingness significantly suppressed [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On January 27, the most-traded SHFE tin sn2603 contract moved sideways in the 430,000 yuan range during the morning session. After the afternoon opening, driven by the LME, it reversed its earlier downward trend, quickly rallied, and continued to strengthen, ultimately closing at 451,150 yuan/mt, with a daily gain of 1.93%. On the LME, three-month tin touched a high of $56,480/mt before weakening and was last quoted at $55,210/mt.

Recent tin price movements were primarily supported by macro sentiment and industry narratives. News of tight supply and rising prices in the chip and semiconductor industry, driven by AI development, continued to release, boosting long-term expectations for tin usage in emerging sectors. On the news front, TSMC's advanced 3nm process capacity is booked until 2027. A Counterpoint Research report also indicated that AI ASIC chip shipments are expected to triple from 2024 levels by 2027 and potentially surpass GPU shipments in 2028, further strengthening expectations for tin's role in the emerging technology supply chain.

However, from a fundamental perspective, the market still shows a sluggish supply-demand dynamic. Overall supply remains stable, but expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar mines and developments in Indonesia's export policies require close monitoring. Demand side, persistently high prices continue to suppress consumption. Downstream solder and electronics enterprises generally maintain low inventory operations, purchasing cautiously only for immediate needs. As the Chinese New Year approaches, some companies have gradually reduced operating rates, entering the holiday period early, keeping spot market transactions sluggish.

In summary, supported by macro sentiment and development expectations, tin prices are fluctuating at highs, but caution is warranted against volatility risks arising from a potentially widening divergence between high prices and fundamentals.