[SMM Analysis] Imports of Nickel Sulphate from Indonesia and Other Countries Continued to Rise in December, with Net Imports Reaching a 25-Year High

Indonesia's Nickel Ore Price Stable, Forestry Task Force Remains Active

Indonesia Nickel Ore Price Stable, Rainy Season Intensifies in Major Mining Areas

On June 5th 2025, Indonesia's Government has officially released the Government's Regulation No. 28 of 2025 (PP 28/2025), which governs "Implementations of Risk-Based Business Licensing". It is a significant reform of the country's investment and business licensing framework, replacing the previous 2021 regulation. However, the one that seeks the public attention of the nickel industry players is in the Appendix 1.F, which is appointed for Non-Ferrous Base Metal Manufacturing Industry (24202), has several new regulations according production of the nickel smelting products.

This week, the market was influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with recovering macro sentiment and persistent inventory accumulation jointly driving nickel prices to fluctuate downward. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened the week at 122,150 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back, closing at 120,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.14% WoW. LME nickel started the week at $15,370/mt, edged up initially due to improved overseas macro sentiment, but later retreated under fundamental pressure, with the latest quote at $15,200/mt, down 0.85% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 122,250 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel this week was 2,400 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -200 to 100 yuan/mt, weakening WoW. As futures prices remained low this week, downstream point-price purchasing sentiment was relatively high.

On October 3rd 2025, Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 17 of 2025 on Procedures for the Preparation, Submission, and Approval of Work Plans and Budgets, and for the Reporting of the Implementation of Mineral and Coal Mining Activities in 2026 has officially released. This regulation is revising the initial three-year period back to annual period in 2026, although several IUP has received 2026's quota from the previous approvals in 2024 and 2025, annuling the initial quota that has been approved.

Nickel prices retreated after a rapid rise this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) opened at 122,790 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week, then pulled back, closing at 121,380 yuan/mt on the 26th, down 0.12% WoW. LME nickel prices also dropped slightly this week, with the latest quote at $15,210/mt, down 0.43%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 122,720 yuan/mt this week, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 2,350 yuan/mt this week, flat WoW, while the premium for mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained in the range of -100-200 yuan/mt, relatively stable. Trading-wise, spot transactions of refined nickel improved this week, mainly due to pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream users, leading to an increase in trading volume.

On September 18th 2025, The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia, through the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, issued Letter No. T-1533/MB.07/DJB.T/2025 imposing administrative sanctions on 190 mining companies that failed to provide reclamation guarantees, ordering the "temporary suspension" of their operations. Most of the list comes from coal producers, and while some others are from nickel, manganese, steel, gold, and etc.

SMM prices of Indonesian nickel ore have remained generally stable this week. NPI prices showed a rebound trend during this week

Indonesian HPM prices saw an increase during the second pricing period of May, leading to a corresponding rise in pyrometallurgical-grade ore prices. However, nickel pig iron (NPI) prices remain under continued downward pressure in the short term.

Nickel Sulfate Price Temporarily holding stable after inching upward. The current price of nickel sulphate is 30,500-31,000 yuan/mt, with transactions done at the lower end of the price range or average price.