[SMM Analysis] China’s 2025 Aluminum Plate/Sheet & Strip Exports Fall, 2026 Outlook Clouded by Anti-Dumping Measures & CBAM

According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports (customs tariff codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) totaled 270,900 mt in December 2025, flat MoM from November but up 2.8% YoY. The cumulative export volume of aluminum plate/sheet and strip for the full year 2025 was approximately 3.0742 million mt, down 12% YoY.

By trade mode, exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip via Processing Trade with Imported Materials amounted to about 40,000 mt in December 2025, accounting for 14.7% of the total, while aluminum foil exported via Processing Trade with Supplied Materials was about 5,300 mt, representing 2.0%. For the full year 2025, aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports via Processing Trade with Supplied Materials and Processing Trade with Imported Materials were 4.1 and 288,000 mt, respectively, with a combined share of 10.7%.

In recent years, although infrastructure construction and industrialization in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East have provided new growth drivers for aluminum plate/sheet and strip demand, they are unlikely to fully replace the share of traditional markets in the short term. Moreover, the persistent challenge of anti-dumping measures against China continues to loom over the export of Chinese aluminum processing products. Multiple countries and regions have initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products and imposed hefty tariffs, leading to the loss or forced transfer of some orders to overseas production sites. To mitigate risks, export enterprises are accelerating capacity deployment in third regions such as Southeast Asia. On the other hand, the formal implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 marks the official establishment of a "green threshold" in global trade. CBAM not only increases direct export costs (through the purchase of CBAM certificates) but also imposes systematic, high-standard requirements for carbon footprint management across the entire industry chain. More economies may follow suit by establishing carbon tariffs or green trade rules in the future.

Overall, the sharp downturn in aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in 2025 reflects an industry at a critical "transition period," facing a dual blockade of international anti-dumping measures against China and CBAM. The export outlook for aluminum plate/sheet and strip in 2026 remains challenging.