In 2025, China’s refined copper market underwent a notable shift in its trade structure, with net imports falling to the lowest level in nearly three years. According to customs data, China imported 3.35 million metric tons of refined copper in 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 10.27%, while exports surged to 790,000 metric tons, up 73.67% from the previous year.
On the import side, volumes remained weak throughout most of the year, particularly during the January–May period. This was primarily due to a wave of new domestic smelting capacity coming online, which reduced the need for imported refined copper. Additionally, the implementation of a new export VAT rebate policy for fabricated copper products in December 2024 spurred demand for refined copper among processing companies to support outbound shipments. Most notably, the LME-COMEX arbitrage window persisted for much of the year, enabling U.S. buyers to secure refined copper from non-American regions at a premium. This drove a surge in re-export and transshipment activity from China’s offshore market, indirectly diluting inbound copper volumes.
Aside from flows to the U.S., China’s refined copper exports performed strongly in broader terms. The export window remained open for extended periods, with a notable surge in off-season shipments during Q4. Beyond exchange deliveries, the regional composition of exports grew increasingly diverse. Southeast Asia and Europe saw steady growth in market share, as several Chinese smelters expanded presence and logistics infrastructure in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other destinations. This diversification became a key feature of the evolving copper supply-demand structure in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, the structural realignment in China’s refined copper trade is expected to continue. On the import side, African-origin copper is showing signs of diversion, with some volumes previously destined for China now being locked into long-term contracts with buyers in Europe, the Middle East, or the U.S. Although some CME-registered brands have recently been quoted to China under quarterly or semi-annual contracts, overall inflows remain uncertain due to fluctuating global LC arbitrage conditions and the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policy.
On the export side, Chinese smelters are expected to build on the gains of 2025, with a notable uptick in long-term contract volumes to overseas markets in response to strong premiums and persistent supply gaps abroad. Southeast Asia in particular remains a key growth area. However, as copper’s strategic value as an energy-transition metal becomes more prominent in the macroeconomic context, there may be increased regulatory attention on balancing export activity with domestic supply security.
Overall, China’s refined copper trade in 2026 is likely to see more balanced inflows and outflows, shaped by a mix of price spreads, regional supply-demand dynamics, and policy guidance. Nevertheless, net import volumes may continue to trend downward in the near term.
