SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes for January 26, 2026
Last week, domestic and overseas tin prices fluctuated considerably at highs. The most-traded SHFE tin contract once hit a record high of 434,600 yuan/mt, while LME tin futures also broke through $53,500/mt. Price volatility was primarily driven by macro liquidity expectations, supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions, and the demand outlook for tin in areas such as AI computing. However, changes in US chip policy towards China and other macro factors also influenced market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, the market overall exhibited a sluggish supply-demand pattern. On the supply side, most smelters are expected to maintain stable production, and mine-side resources are relatively steady. However, vigilance is required regarding potential supply recovery, such as accelerated production resumptions in Myanmar mining areas or loosened export policies in Indonesia. On the demand side, consumption is significantly suppressed by persistently high tin prices. Downstream solder enterprises and end-user purchases remain cautious. Although the Chinese New Year is approaching, pre-holiday restocking demand has not materialized significantly due to the absolute high price pressure. Trading in the spot market is sluggish, largely characterized by "nominal prices without actual transactions," with only rigid demand supporting minimal deals. Concurrently, the traditional consumer electronics sector is in its off-season, and demand impetus from emerging fields has not yet been fully realized. While uncertainties like geopolitical issues may continue to support short-term tin price strength, factors such as high prices suppressing actual demand, the gradual accumulation of global visible inventory, potential supply recovery, and marginally weakening macro sentiment collectively constitute potential downward pressure for the market. SHFE tin prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Investors should closely monitor speculative fund movements, changes on the supply side, and actual downstream consumption.
