SHFE and LME Tin Prices Strengthened in Sync, Spot Cargo Trading Sluggish Amid Macro Volatility [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On January 23, tin prices both domestically and overseas exhibited a high-level, strong fluctuating trend. The most-traded SHFE tin contract, sn2603, once reached 434,600 yuan/mt during the session and closed at 429,570 yuan/mt, up 4.71%. The three-month LME tin contract also rose in sync, hitting a high of $54,350/mt. The current price strength is primarily driven by macro liquidity expectations, supply concerns triggered by geopolitics, and the demand outlook from emerging sectors like artificial intelligence. However, external uncertainties, such as changes in US chip policy towards China, are also impacting market sentiment.

In 2025, China made positive progress in promoting the integration of technological innovation and industry. According to data from the MIIT, artificial intelligence injected strong momentum into the industrial economy. Industrial robot production increased 28% YoY, while NEV sales reached 16.49 million units, up 28.2% YoY. Investment in industries such as aerospace equipment manufacturing achieved double-digit growth. At the beginning of 2026, multiple industrial policies continued their support for emerging sectors, providing medium and long-term demand expectations for key materials like tin.

However, from a fundamental perspective, the market currently shows a weak supply-demand dynamic. The supply side remains generally stable, but potential increases from production resumptions in Myanmar and policy easing in Indonesia warrant attention. On the demand side, high prices have significantly dampened consumption. Downstream solder enterprises are purchasing cautiously. Despite the approaching Chinese New Year, traditional restocking demand has not yet materialized, spot transactions are sluggish, and only rigid demand is sustaining minimal trading. The traditional consumer electronics sector is in its off-season, and demand from emerging sectors has not yet fully translated into actual procurement.

Overall, while macro narratives and geopolitical factors may continue to support short-term tin price strength, caution is advised against downside risks. These risks stem from high prices suppressing actual demand, the accumulation of global visible inventory, potential supply recovery, and a marginal weakening of macro sentiment. It is recommended to continuously monitor inventory changes, supply dynamics in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.