[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (January 19 – January 23), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 625.3 yuan/gram and closed at 685.9 yuan/gram, up 67.85 yuan/gram or 10.98% WoW from the previous week's settlement price. The weekly highest price was 688.6 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 598 yuan/gram. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 490 yuan/gram and closed at 497.95 yuan/gram, up 23.05 yuan/gram or 4.85% WoW from the previous week's settlement price. The weekly highest price was 506.45 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 467.7 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 104,157 lots, a total turnover of 66.402 billion yuan, and an open interest of 28,152 lots, a decrease of 2,442 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 41,995 lots, a total turnover of 20.518 billion yuan, and an open interest of 11,348 lots, a decrease of 1,214 lots WoW.
Recent price movements were mainly driven by rising international political uncertainty, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the US Fed's independence. Regarding US attitude towards Europe, Trump maintained a tough criticism stance in policy philosophy, shifted from extreme threats to diplomatic compromise on the Greenland issue to avoid a full confrontation with Europe, while continuously pressuring Europe and NATO to bear more security and economic responsibilities to safeguard US priority interests. On Section 232 investigations, on January 14, US President Trump signed a presidential proclamation "Adjusting Imports of Processed Critical Minerals and Their Derivatives" (PCMDPs) based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, declaring that PCMDPs threaten US national security, but Trump opted for negotiated agreements rather than immediate tariffs. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, conflict intensity increased, military confrontation reached a new stage; on January 11, Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence, which Russia characterized as state terrorism, making a ceasefire or battlefield breakthrough highly unlikely in the short term. Regarding the US Fed, Powell faced a criminal investigation, and the Fed's monetary policy independence faced politicization risks. On South African power, South Africa relaxed antitrust rules, allowing competitors in industries hit by high electricity costs to cooperate and negotiate cheaper power supply to prevent total collapse. Attention should also be paid to the US anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations results on Russian unwrought palladium, LME's new manager details to be announced within the month, and the announcement of the Fed Chairman candidate.
Spot side, the spot market remained mainly supported by investment demand, end-user purchase willingness was low at high levels, wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and overall market trading was moderate. On Friday, platinum and palladium surged sharply, some traders actively inquired, but actual transactions were limited due to no significant change in the spot-futures price spread, and some suppliers had low selling intention, holding back goods and watching.
