SMM Alumina Morning Comment Jan. 22
Futures:The most-traded alumina a2605 futures contract opened at 2,685 yuan/mt in the overnight session, touched a high of 2,685 yuan/mt, fell to a low of 2,666 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,676 yuan/mt, up 4 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 10,100 lots to 496,000 lots, indicating cautious market sentiment. Technically, the closing price was below the MA5 (2,700.60), MA10 (2,758.10), and MA30 (2,735.67), suggesting continued resistance near the short-term structural top. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's "death cross" persisted, with the DEA (-3.98) crossing above the DIF (-18.41), signaling increased downward momentum. The histogram reading was -28.84, indicating that alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.
Industry News:
1) According to public reports, the community on Wagina Island in the Solomon Islands firmly opposes bauxite mining on the island. Following a consultation meeting in November 2025 involving government representatives, mining companies, and lawyers, nearly 100% of the island's residents reiterated their rejection of any mining project. The residents, who primarily depend on marine resources for their livelihood, fear that mining will cause irreversible damage to their livelihood and environment. The project dates back to 2013 when the government approved Solomon Bauxite Ltd. to develop an open-pit mine on the island. According to assessments, mining would directly affect approximately 60% of the island's land, leading to deforestation and long-term relocation of residents. Due to strong community opposition and the company's failure to obtain community consent documents, the Environmental Advisory Committee has overturned the approval from the Ministry of Environment. Although the company holds a mining lease, it must reapply for a development permit before commencing activities. The project is planned to operate for 16 to 20 years and is expected to significantly increase the island's population and heavy equipment activity. The issue has also attracted political attention at the provincial and national levels. A former provincial governor was removed from office for firmly opposing mining, while the opposition leader has called on the government to suspend issuing new mining licenses and to develop a more comprehensive mining policy to protect national and public interests. Despite the government's push for mining development, the people of Wagina Island remain steadfast in their "no mining" stance.
Ore:As of January 21, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $65.85/mt, down $0.01/mt from the previous day, mainly due to lower caustic soda prices. The SMM Guinea FOB average was $41/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $64/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $64/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $58/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average was $62.5/mt, flat from the previous day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was $75/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $75/mt, flat from last Friday. Domestic ore, affected by adverse weather, saw short-term production cuts and hindered transportation in some mining areas of north China, sustaining the phase of tight supply; prices are expected to remain stable. Imported ore, recent intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers declined from previous levels, with sluggish market transactions; some alumina refineries reported cautious procurement plans amid falling ore prices. SMM will continue to monitor production at domestic and overseas mines, port shipments, and price trends.
Spot Prices:As of January 21, 2025, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,633.94 yuan/mt, down 3.29 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was 2,558.39 yuan/mt, down 4.88 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was 2,631.32 yuan/mt, down 3.68 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was 2,616.82 yuan/mt, down 1.26 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was 2,717.65 yuan/mt, down 3.55 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was 2,704.31 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Report:According to SMM data, on January 21, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 34.06 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant Report:On January 21, total registered alumina warrants increased by 3,012 mt from the previous trading day to 119,100 mt. Warrant registrations in Shandong remained flat at 7,796 mt, Henan unchanged at 0 mt, Guangxi unchanged at 5,103 mt, Gansu unchanged at 3,607 mt, while Xinjiang increased by 3,012 mt to 102,600 mt.
Overseas Market:As of January 21, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $304/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.98, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,636.94 yuan/mt, slightly above the SMM alumina index by 3 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import window remained closed.
Summary:The oversupply in the alumina market persists, with overall procurement sentiment remaining weak and spot prices continuing to decline. As of last Thursday, following the completion of maintenance at an alumina refinery in Shanxi, the industry's overall operating rate rebounded, with weekly production at around 1.71 million mt. From the inventory structure perspective, alumina refinery finished product inventories continued to accumulate, increasing by 57,000 mt WoW as of last Thursday; aluminum enterprise raw material inventories also rose by 15,000 mt WoW. As aluminum enterprise raw material inventories are already at a relatively high level, their procurement demand for alumina tends to weaken, further dragging down the market destocking process. Notably, the previous rise in alumina futures prices attracted some spot cargo resources to flow to the Xinjiang region in preparation for delivery, driving in-transit and station inventories up by approximately 32,000 mt WoW. The act of shipping to delivery warehouses has, to some extent, intensified visible inventory pressure. Overall, the current alumina market still exhibits a structure of loose supply and gradually slowing demand, with continuous inventory accumulation putting pressure on prices. In the absence of large-scale production cuts or maintenance in the industry, alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure. [Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
