From 2021 to 2025, China's phosphate ore imports exhibited post-pandemic characteristics, with a substantial increase in volume. Imports surged from 65,000 mt in 2021 to 2.0683 million mt in 2024, driven by rising domestic phosphate ore prices and the opening of import opportunities, which heightened import reliance among enterprises purchasing externally along rivers and coastal areas. Although imports pulled back to 1.7198 million mt in 2025, reducing import dependence, high-quality phosphate ore remains a scarce resource in the long term. With growing new energy demand, imports have jumped accordingly, and are projected to maintain an annual volume exceeding 2 million mt over the next five years.

This week, cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices were basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices fell before rising again.

Currently, the export of ternary precursors and ternary cathode materials enjoys a 13% VAT export rebate. A noticeable surge in concentrated "pre-rebate" exports is anticipated in the first quarter.

This week, trading activity in the cobalt sulphate market slowed down, while spot prices remained stable. Supply side, supported by persistently rising raw material costs, smelters maintained firm quotations: mainstream quotations for medium- and high-grade nickel cobalt sulphate were 96,000-97,000 yuan/mt, and low-grade nickel cobalt sulphate was quoted at 98,000-100,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, as the year-end approached, purchase willingness among downstream enterprises generally weakened. Additionally, factors such as the gradual recovery of exports from the DRC and falling refined cobalt prices dampened market trading sentiment, leading enterprises to focus on rigid demand. Overall, market transactions were sluggish this week. However, with strong support from upstream raw material costs, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in the near term.

This week, spot prices for refined cobalt continued to fluctuate downward. Supply side, changes were limited, with smelters holding prices firm based on cost support, while traders maintained spot-futures price spread quotation models. Demand side, affected by the persistent decline in futures prices, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was dampened. Even enterprises with restocking needs remained cautious due to concerns over further price weakness, maintaining only rigid procurement, and overall market transactions remained sluggish. Currently, there is still a significant price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts, and the profit window for reverse smelting production has reopened, providing a floor support for refined cobalt prices. In the short term, refined cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate around the 430,000 yuan/mt level.

The cobalt intermediate products market maintained a strong pattern this week. Supply side, some overseas miners were bullish on the outlook and conducted concentrated procurement in the domestic market at around $25.5/lb, exacerbating spot tightness. Driven by this, high-end offers in the domestic market rose to $26/lb. Demand side, the continuous increase in raw material prices once again squeezed smelters' profit margins, prompting enterprises to mostly return to just-in-time procurement. Policy side, it is understood that export procedures for non-pilot enterprises are progressing steadily, and it is expected that most of the 2026 quotas can be smoothly exported by January 2026. However, considering the overall tight market liquidity, coupled with the approximately three-month shipping cycle from the DRC to China, the structurally tight supply pattern of cobalt intermediate products is unlikely to fundamentally reverse before the bulk arrival of raw materials in April, and prices still have upward momentum.

This week, the second-life battery cell market overall showed stable prices. Cost side, a clear divergence was observed: lithium carbonate prices continued to rise this week, providing some cost support for the second-life battery industry chain, while nickel sulphate prices experienced a slight decline, exerting a minor drag on costs. Cobalt sulphate prices remained stable throughout, with no significant fluctuations. Supply side, mainstream battery cell manufacturers finalized plans for normal production without shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday. To avoid inventory management pressure during the holiday period, some enterprises have begun clearing lithium inventory, leading to a short-term increase in market supply. Demand side, affected by the seasonal approach of the Chinese New Year holiday, the procurement pace of downstream enterprises related to second-life applications gradually slowed down, and procurement volume saw a phased pullback, resulting in an overall mild downward trend in demand. The market is currently in a typical price negotiation phase. The upward cost-driven support for price increases is being offset by the downward pressure from weakening demand. Most market participants maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The mutual balancing of bullish and bearish forces ultimately kept prices in the second-life application market stable this week, with no significant fluctuations.