[SMM Analysis] EQ Copper Dominates 67% of China’s Copper Cathode Imports in 2025

As of January 20, 2026, the full-year import data for copper cathode in 2025 has been disclosed. According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, EQ copper cathode (referring primarily to copper cathode not registered with the SHFE or LME, as well as a small portion of registered cathode still traded as EQ in the domestic market) accounted for 67.54% of China's total imports in 2025, an increase of 5.37 percentage points compared to 2024.

Based on detailed data analysis, Africa, Russia, and Kazakhstan remained the primary sources of China's copper cathode imports. However, as the US siphoned off global copper cathode supplies starting in 2025, the volume of African material diverted to the US increased significantly. Following reports that "100000 mt of copper from 20% of the production at CMOC's TFM mine was allocated to Swiss commodity giant Mercuria and directed to the US market," the share of Congolese copper cathode flowing into China is expected to be diluted. Nevertheless, inflows from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan into China are projected to show no significant decline in 2026.

SMM's compilation of monthly import shares of EQ copper cathode from 2022 to 2025 revealed a year-on-year increase in this proportion. Against the backdrop of continued US absorption of global copper cathode supplies, China's imports of EQ copper cathode are expected to remain high in 2026.