[SMM Analysis] Nickel Prices Extended Gains This Week, Domestic Refined Nickel Inventory Continued to Build

The nickel market started the week under slight downward pressure, then rebounded significantly amid positive macro news and developments in the Indonesian market. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) closed at 148,010 yuan/mt on Friday, up 2.52% WoW, with a weekly high of 150,000 yuan/mt; the LME nickel 3M contract settled at $18,850/mt, gaining 4.07% over the week. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 146,290 yuan/mt this week, down 800 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel stood at 8,400 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel ranged from -200 to 600 yuan/mt. Spot trading of refined nickel remained sluggish this week, with speculative stockpiling fading and end-user purchase willingness weak. Spot trading contrasted sharply with the futures market, as fear of high prices prevailed and end-user buying interest stayed low.

On the macro front, tensions between the US and its European allies over Greenland heightened risk-off sentiment, driving continued gains in gold and silver prices. US November PCE inflation met expectations, Q3 GDP grew strongly (up 4.4% QoQ annualized), and several US Fed officials struck hawkish tones. Market-implied probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in January reached 95%, with the first interest rate cut now expected in June. Domestically, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan in MLF operations, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased operations, keeping market liquidity loose. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract likely to trade between 140,000-155,000 yuan/mt next week.

Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW.

Domestic social inventory totaled approximately 66,000 mt, up 2,785 mt WoW.