【SMM Analysis】Sentiment Boosted and Cost-Supported, Ferrochrome Prices Remain Firm

January 23, 2026

On January 20, Tsingshan and TISCO announced their February 2026 tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,245 yuan/50% Cr ton and 8,045 yuan/50% Cr ton respectively, representing a 50 yuan increase month-on-month from January. This largely aligns with earlier bullish market expectations, providing support for ferrochrome prices. High-carbon ferrochrome quotations in Inner Mongolia remain at 8,400–8,500 yuan/50% Cr ton.

I. Sustained Uptrend in Downstream Stainless Steel Market, Positive Sentiment Transmitting Upwards

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reportedly adjusted its 2026 RAKB nickel ore approval quota to 260 million metric tons, a notable reduction from 2025 levels. This has driven nickel and stainless steel markets to surge continuously, with futures hitting limit-up at one point. The main stainless steel futures contract broke through 14,900 yuan/ton, reaching its highest level since June 2024. Spot prices rose in tandem, trading activity improved, and social inventories fell to a year-to-date low.

Positive factors have transmitted upwards to the ferrochrome sector. Coupled with the release of winter restocking demand, steel mills have increased purchasing willingness, driving ferrochrome prices to rise steadily. Some stainless steel and special steel mills have raised their tender prices; the 50-yuan increase in February long-term contract prices announced by Tsingshan and TISCO has further bolstered market sentiment.

II. Sustained Rise in Chrome Ore Feedstock Prices, Bottom Cost Support for Ferrochrome

Following the end of the Christmas holiday, major overseas South African fine ore mines have raised offers for three consecutive rounds, surging from 263 USD/ton to 287 USD/ton, providing strong support for the chrome ore spot market.

Total port inventories of chrome ore in China have declined, easing supply-side pressure. Combined with winter stockpiling demand from ferrochrome producers, traders have maintained a strong price-supporting stance. Mainstream lump ore supplies are tight, with quotations rising sharply:

• Turkish lump ore: 62–63 yuan/tonne-unit
• Zimbabwean fine ore: Costs have risen due to new export policies and shipping restrictions, with spot quotations up to 59–60 yuan/tonne-unit
• South African fine ore: Quotations have risen to 56–57.5 yuan/tonne-unit amid support from high-priced arriving futures

The sustained rise in chrome ore feedstock prices has directly pushed up ferrochrome production costs. Currently, the average smelting cost of ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia stands at 7,850–7,920 yuan/50% Cr ton, supporting a stable and positive trend in ferrochrome prices.

III. Tight Retail Spot Supply, Strong Price-Supporting Atmosphere

Driven by downstream demand and bottom cost support, the ferrochrome market holds largely optimistic expectations. Given the current tightness in retail ferrochrome spot supply, with some producers’ orders scheduled until after the Spring Festival, a certain degree of supply-demand mismatch has emerged in the short term, and manufacturers have shown strong willingness to support prices. Ferrochrome prices are expected to remain stable and firm.

Going forward, close attention should be paid to the performance of the downstream stainless steel market and the pace of new ferrochrome capacity release.