Overnight decline in SHFE copper slightly improved purchasing sentiment, yet high inventory continued to weigh on spot cargo transactions [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jan 23, 2026 14:12

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. The current price spread between futures contracts, combined with the ongoing inventory buildup in Shanghai and narrowing import losses, collectively exert multiple pressures on the spot market. Amid persistent discounts, suppliers remain strongly inclined to ship to delivery warehouses. The Shanghai spot copper market is anticipated to maintain a pattern of "high discounts and weak transactions" next week.

Today, the SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2602 contract were quoted at a discount of 240-120 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 180 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 100,650 to 101,010 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2602 contract experienced a gap-up and rally, followed by rangebound fluctuations. It opened with a rapid surge, climbing from around 100,130 yuan/mt to a high of 101,190 yuan/mt, then fluctuated repeatedly between 100,600 and 101,000 yuan/mt. By the close, the price settled at 100,750 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby contracts ranged from 280 to 230 yuan/mt, while the import loss for the current-month SHFE copper contract was between 100 and 320 yuan/mt.

At the start of the morning session, suppliers offered high-quality copper, including Guixi and Jinchuan (plate), at discounts of 130-80 yuan/mt. Standard-quality copper was quoted at discounts of 240-110 yuan/mt, with Zhongtiaoshan and Jinguan initially transacting at discounts of 220-200 yuan/mt, while JCC and Lufang were quoted at discounts of 150-110 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper supply was tight, with only some Myanmar-origin material available, leading to firm offers at discounts of 280-270 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers further lowered prices, with Guixi actually transacting at a discount of 120 yuan/mt. For standard-quality copper, offers from Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC fell to discounts of 200-140 yuan/mt due to increased selling by some state-owned enterprises during the day, while Zhongjin and Yuguang traded at discounts of 280-260 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. The current futures spread structure, combined with ongoing inventory buildup in Shanghai and narrowing import losses, collectively pose multiple headwinds for the spot market. Amid persistent discounts, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses remains strong. The Shanghai spot copper market is anticipated to maintain a discount pattern next week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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