MMG Copper Production Hits Record High, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,636.5/mt overnight, initially touched a low of $12,623/mt, then copper prices fluctuated upward, approached a high of $12,868.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $12,840/mt, up 0.62%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, and open interest stood at 316,000 lots, down 1,559 lots from the previous session, mainly due to short covering. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 99,800 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 99,440/mt at the beginning, then fluctuated rangebound, approached a high of 100,500 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 100,270 yuan/mt, down 0.43%. Trading volume reached 111,000 lots, and open interest stood at 225,000 lots, up 2,144 lots from the previous session, mainly due to short adding.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Summary] News:
(1) On Jan. 22, MMG's 2025 copper cathode production was 507,000 mt, up 27% YoY, hitting a record high since 2018. Among them, Las Bambas produced 410,800 mt of copper cathode in 2025, up 27% YoY.
(2) On Jan. 22, Teck Resources' 2025 copper production was 453.5 kt in metal content, up 1.7% YoY, in line with the production guidance of 415-465 kt in metal content.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on Jan. 22, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a "W" pattern, opening at 100,220 yuan/mt, falling to a low of 99,940 yuan/mt, then rising and twice touching above 100,780 yuan/mt, followed by another decline to 100,200 yuan/mt, before rising again to close at 100,270 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 270 yuan/mt to 210 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 360-430 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, with copper prices' center moving lower, downstream purchasing sentiment improved, market transactions continued to recover, suppliers showed stronger willingness to hold prices firm yesterday, and some scarce cargoes traded relatively actively. Suppliers' offers are expected to remain relatively stable today.
(2) Guangdong: On Jan. 22, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 200-90 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average discount at 145 yuan/mt, flat from the previous session; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 260-240 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 250 yuan/mt, flat from the previous session. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,310 yuan/mt, up 490 yuan/mt from the previous session, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,205 yuan/mt, up 490 yuan/mt from the previous session. Overall, as copper prices rose again, downstream restocking interest was low, and spot premiums only held flat from yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On January 22, warrant prices were $15-29/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $17-27/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$16/mt to -$6/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January and early February.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 22, the futures closing price was 100,270 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -170 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap rose 200 yuan/mt WoW. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,000-89,200 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,723 yuan/mt, down 249 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,110 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back to around 100,000 yuan/mt, the discount of secondary copper rod against copper futures narrowed continuously. As of today, the discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 870 yuan/mt, down nearly 500 yuan/mt from Monday. Secondary copper rod enterprises reported very sluggish sales, with the economic benefits of secondary copper rod completely disappearing. Downstream end-users continued to wait for copper prices to fall before purchasing.
Prices: On the macro front, US November PCE data rose slightly, largely in line with market expectations, putting pressure on optimistic expectations for future interest rate cuts. Additionally, production at Chile's Mantoverde copper-gold mine has basically halted, exacerbating global supply tightness and supporting LME copper's rise. On the fundamentals side, imported supply improved slightly, while domestic supply arrived steadily, resulting in overall stable supply. Demand side, stabilized copper prices coupled with stockpiling demand for the Chinese New Year led to some improvement in consumption. Inventory side, as of Thursday, January 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased 2.9% WoW from the previous Thursday, with the rate of inventory buildup narrowing. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]