Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Commentary (January 22, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review] Silver prices fluctuated this week, rising first then falling. At the start of the week, due to disputes related to Greenland, the policy of mutual tariff increases between European and US markets was interpreted by the market as a simultaneous escalation of geopolitical and trade frictions, boosting safe-haven sentiment in the precious metals market. On Monday, silver prices ended last week's correction and turned upward. From January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's position limit policy for silver contracts was implemented, leading to a slight decline in speculative activity in silver, and after a technical correction, silver's gains lagged behind gold's. Regarding the gold/silver ratio this week, as of January 21, the LBMA gold/silver ratio remained at 51 times. Considering that silver prices completed a significant rally in the short term, some institutions assessed the risk of buying silver at this time as much higher than buying gold, resulting in intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the silver market. The room for further decline in the gold/silver ratio next week is relatively limited.

[Price Forecast] Based on recent dynamics in the precious metals market, the $5,000 per ounce gold price target for 2026 is no longer considered unattainable, and medium and long-term expectations for silver prices are also bolstered, holding up well. There is also a possibility that silver prices could test the $100 per ounce level in the short term. However, due to multiple exchange restrictions and risk warnings, coupled with an easing of conflicts over Greenland, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in silver remains intense, and the risk of a correction from high levels persists for next week.

[Key Data]
Bearish: Eurozone November seasonally adjusted current account €85.72, lower than previous value
US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16: 3.04 million barrels, higher than expectations
Bullish:
China Q4 GDP year-over-year announced value: 4.5%, higher than expectations
US December Pending Home Sales Index month-over-month: -9.3%, lower than expectations
Key data and macro news releases to watch next week include:
US Fed Chairman appointment decision, Trump will announce the candidate to replace Powell as Fed Chairman; candidates include Hassett, Warsh, Waller, Bowman, Rudd, etc.
Developments regarding uncertainty over Greenland and tariff disputes between the US and Europe
US Advance Q4 GDP (typically released in late January)
US December PCE inflation data
US weekly initial jobless claims