[SMM Analysis] Ternary Cathode Transaction Sentiment Recovered This Week

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to rise sharply. Although lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices experienced a slight correction at the beginning of the week, they rebounded strongly in the following days, with the gains offsetting the impact of falling nickel sulphate prices on ternary material costs. In terms of transactions, due to sharp fluctuations in raw material prices in the first half of the month, downstream battery cell manufacturers mainly focused on executing long-term contracts and digesting inventories. This week, some battery cell manufacturers began to restock slightly, and trading sentiment recovered compared to last week. However, the future trend of raw material prices remains unclear. Cathode plants quickly raised their offers based on subsequent bullish expectations, while battery cell manufacturers remained cautious in their procurement, resulting in significant price disagreements between the two parties.

Demand side, demand for medium- and high-nickel materials from leading producers remained relatively robust. At the same time, due to the impending cancellation or reduction of export tax rebates for cathodes and batteries, manufacturers targeting overseas markets are accelerating their production pace. Although the specific details and scale changes of overseas orders still require time to become clearer, the current export rush has become quite evident. Additionally, some manufacturers are stockpiling in advance for the Chinese New Year, collectively driving the overall market performance in January to be better than previously expected.