Rio Tinto Q4 Production Increases, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, January 22, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,915.5/mt overnight. It touched a high of $12,930.5/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center fluctuated downward. Approaching the end of the session, it touched a low of $12,712/mt before a slight correction, finally closing at $12,761.5/mt, down 0.27%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest reached 317,000 lots, a decrease of 8,682 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 100,550 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a high of 101,410 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to touch a low of 100,260 yuan/mt, finally closing at 100,420 yuan/mt, down 0.85%. Trading volume reached 89,000 lots, and open interest reached 224,000 lots, a decrease of 585 lots from the previous trading day, characterized by short position increase.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 21, Rio Tinto's attributable copper production for Q4 2025 was 240,000 mt, up 5% YoY and up 18% QoQ. Its full-year 2025 attributable copper production was 883,000 mt, a cumulative increase of 11% YoY.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 21, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a slow upward trend, opening at 99,840 yuan/mt and rising multiple times to touch 100,400 yuan/mt, closing at 100,310 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby months was between 270 yuan/mt and 180 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 760-820 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the copper price center shifted downward, and market trading activity improved somewhat. Suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm strengthened today, and transactions for some scarce cargoes were relatively active. Supplier offers are expected to remain relatively stable today.
(2) Guangdong: On January 21, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 200-90 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 145 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 260-240 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 250 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 99,820 yuan/mt, down 1,095 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 99,715 yuan/mt, down 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream enterprises' restocking enthusiasm remained generally tepid despite the price pullback, and the premium only increased slightly today.
(3) Imported Copper: On January 21, warrant prices were $15-29/mt, QP January, with the average price down $4/mt from the previous trading day. B/L prices were $17-27/mt, QP February, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$16/mt to -$6/mt, QP February, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day. Offers referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on January 21, the futures closing price was 100,310 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -180 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap raw material fell 400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 88,800-89,000 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,972 yuan/mt, down 62 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,240 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, market participants reported that some secondary copper rod enterprises in Central China resumed production, but their operating enthusiasm was not high after resumption. Due to invoice limitations, the resumed secondary copper rod enterprises imposed daily sales limits, and their raw material procurement offers were relatively low.
Price: On the macro front, Trump has formed a cooperation framework on the Greenland issue, stating that no additional tariffs will be imposed, and the US dollar index closed slightly higher. On the fundamentals side, registered SX-EW supply is tight, but overall spot cargo supply in the market is relatively ample. Demand side, copper prices' center moved downward, and market procurement sentiment showed marginal improvement. Overall, weak fundamentals and cooling macro conditions are resonating, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]