[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Surged Significantly, Approaching 14,900 yuan/mt, Stainless Steel Spot Market Trading Sluggish Ahead of Holiday

SMM January 21st report, SS futures showed a pattern of rising. Despite the overall weak and volatile trend of SS futures during the night session and before noon, SS surged in the afternoon driven by capital, breaking through the high point since 2025, reaching as high as 14,895 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the weak and volatile trend of SS futures in the morning, coupled with low downstream purchase willingness, pre-holiday stockpiling demand was not released; traders, under year-end repayment pressure, were more willing to sell, leading to a slight decline in morning quotes. However, in the afternoon, boosted by the significant rise in SS futures, spot traders raised their quotes, but actual transactions remained sluggish.

The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:30 am, SS2603 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, 304/2B spot premiums and discounts ranged from 5 to 205 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were all quoted at 8,450 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 304/2B coils, Wuxi average price 14,300 yuan/mt, Foshan average price 14,200 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils 26,300 yuan/mt, Foshan 26,300 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi 25,500 yuan/mt; both Wuxi and Foshan cold-rolled 430/2B coils 7,800 yuan/mt.

Recently, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that although the RKAB approval quota was adjusted from the previously rumored 250 million mt to 260 million mt, the 2025 approval volume is still significantly reduced, maintaining strong expectations of nickel ore supply shortages. SHFE nickel futures prices rose strongly, driving SS stainless steel futures to surge, with the most-traded contract hitting the daily limit, setting a new high since June 2024, with a strong sentiment fueled by market capital. Although it is still in the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, the robust performance of the futures market has broken the cautious atmosphere, and stainless steel spot prices have followed suit, with trader quotes climbing. As stainless steel spot prices have risen to high levels, end-users' fear of high prices has intensified, with inquiries and purchases remaining weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market has not completely dissipated. However, with limited arrivals this week, combined with traders' lack of confidence and lower purchasing earlier, and the mentality of holding prices firm and withholding sales amid the rising trend, the overall market supply is tight, and there are few instances of traders selling at discounted prices. The cost side also strengthened, further solidifying the support: high-grade NPI prices surged due to nickel ore news, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices also rose, supported by overseas chrome ore tariff policies, and stainless steel scrap prices followed the increase in finished products. Market dynamics are still mainly driven by macro expectations and policy games in the futures market, and while the spot fundamentals have two bullish supports of "low inventory and strong costs," real terminal demand has not yet seen substantial improvement, and the current market has entered a "sentiment premium" phase. The short-term market may hover at highs, but the risk of volatility has increased significantly.